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$XRP has fallen about 69% from its July 2025 peak of $3.66, according to data comparing the asset’s major historical drawdowns.
While the decline is significant, it remains much smaller than the devastating corrections seen in previous $XRP bear markets. This has sparked new conversations among observers.
Some believe $XRP’s price is benefiting from a more mature market structure, while others think another capitulation phase could still lie ahead.
How $XRP Past Bear Markets Compare
Historical data shows $XRP has endured steep losses in every major market cycle:
- 2013–2014: 95% decline over roughly 7 months
- 2018–2020: 96% decline across about 26 months
- 2021–2022: 85% decline in around 14 months
- 2025–2026: 69% decline so far after approximately 11 months
The trend suggests $XRP’s drawdowns have generally become less severe over time. The current correction is substantially smaller than the 95%–96% collapses recorded in earlier cycles.
What a 96% Drawdown Would Look Like
$XRP reached a cycle high of $3.66 in July 2025 and currently trades near $1.10, representing a decline of roughly 69.9%. If $XRP were to match its worst historical drawdown of 96%, the price would fall to about $0.15.
That would require $XRP to drop another 86.7% from its current level. For comparison:
- 85% drawdown: about $0.55
- 95% drawdown: about $0.18
- 96% drawdown: about $0.15
A move to those levels would return $XRP to price zones last seen during the lawsuit era. For instance, $XRP hit $0.17 in December 2020, shortly after the SEC lawsuit was announced.
Stronger Market?
Some commentators believe $XRP’s progressively smaller drawdowns reflect a maturing market. Notable supporting factors include:
- Greater institutional participation via ETFs
- Deeper liquidity across exchanges
- Expanded adoption of $XRP and the $XRP Ledger ecosystem
- A more favorable regulatory climate
According to supporters, $XRP may no longer experience the extreme 95%–96% collapses that defined earlier cycles.
“Bottom Not In”
But not everyone is convinced the bottom is in. The current correction is only about 11 months old, and some traders believe another leg lower remains possible before a long-term bottom is established.
The 2018–2020 cycle, for example, lasted more than two years before bottoming out. Specifically, $XRP fell from $3.84 in January 2018 to $0.1151 in March 2020, enduring a prolonged bear market.
Meanwhile, in the current cycle, analysts have mostly floated low-price targets between $0.50 and $0.90 as potential $XRP lows. They consider this range a possible entry zone for long-term investment.
For now, while $XRP’s 69% decline is its mildest major bear-market correction in more than a decade, the risk of lower prices remains, especially as many believe Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out.
