A new driver of inflation emerges: AI infrastructure and declining oil prices may bring forward the Federal Reserve's rate hike window

⑴ US Treasury yields have edged higher, and crude oil prices are approaching the gap between $67.83 and $69.20 per barrel that formed from February 27 to 28. Institutions believe speculative long positions have largely been cleared out during this round of decline, and the market is nearing a crucial technical and position-structure turning point.⑵ Although the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard continues to require transiting vessels to coordinate militarily, so geopolitical risks have not truly dissipated. Over 1 billion barrels of oil remained stranded in the Gulf region during the conflict, prompting consuming countries to draw heavily from inventories, and the restocking process may take nearly a year. Physical market tightness far exceeds the level reflected by current prices.⑶ According to The Wall Street Journal, the construction boom for artificial intelligence data centers is becoming a new inflationary catalyst, as memory chip demand pushes prices higher and power consumption surges. A survey by the National Association for Business Economics shows that 81% of economists expect AI infrastructure will intensify inflation pressures over the next year.⑷ The chief economist at Apollo pointed out that falling oil prices do not necessarily mean inflation will ease; instead, consumers saving on energy expenses could shift spending to other categories, further boosting demand in an already overheated economy and potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to raise rates earlier.⑸ Core PCE for May faces upside risk to 3.5% year-on-year; if readings exceed forecasts, it will further strengthen the market’s pricing for a rate hike this year. Currently, the market perceives little likelihood of a July rate increase, but if consumer spending maintains a 0.6% month-on-month gain and wage growth persists, the threshold for a fall rate hike will drop significantly.⑹ On Thursday, there will be a concentrated release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, durable goods orders, Q1 GDP final value, initial jobless claims, and personal income and expenditure reports. Combined with speeches from New York Fed's Williams and Chicago Fed's Goolsbee, this data set may provide crucial directional guidance for short-term trading.