The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 69%.
According to Golden Ten Data on June 26, based on CME "FedWatch": there is a 69% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July, and a 31% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. There is a 36.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until September, a 48.8% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike, and a 14.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Deutsche Bank: After the three major central banks hiked rates simultaneously, the market may once again underestimate the terminal interest rate
Deutsche Bank points out that as central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan are tightening policy simultaneously, the market may still be underpricing the eventual terminal rates. With oil prices remaining high, inflation may spill over into core inflation and wages. Moreover, financial conditions have not tightened in tandem, which could weaken the effect of rate hikes. Citing the experience of 2022, Deutsche Bank notes that the market then expected a total of around 200 basis points of Fed rate hikes in the first year, but the final figure exceeded 400 basis points, illustrating that the market often underestimates the terminal rate.
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