Caixin Futures: The chemical sector continues to underperform as crude oil's low-level consolidation weighs on the energy chemical chain

⑴ The United States has exempted Iranian oil and petrochemical product exports, the strait is gradually being reopened, tensions continue to ease, and the market is expected to remain weak; international crude oil prices continue to fluctuate at low levels, with the domestic energy and chemical sector following suit, and the chemical sector expected to remain bearish.⑵ The US and Iran have confirmed the contents of the memorandum of understanding, with all parties finalizing a 60-day roadmap. The agreement will open the Strait of Hormuz and lift Iranian oil sanctions. Although there have been recent geopolitical fluctuations, overall, the situation is developing toward easing, and fuel oil is expected to perform weakly.⑶ In the asphalt sector, Shandong 70# heavy-duty asphalt prices are 4,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; during the week, the operating rate of 77 domestic heavy-duty asphalt companies was 15.8%, an increase of 1.8% from the previous period. The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturing enterprises was 167,000 tons, down 6.2% week-on-week. The total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample enterprises stood at 807,000 tons, an increase of 0.6% from May 22 and a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. The total inventory of 104 social warehouses for domestic asphalt was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% from June 22 and a year-on-year decrease of 38.4%. Overall, the asphalt market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. With the easing of the US-Iran situation in the mid-term, asphalt may continue to adjust weakly.⑷ In the glass sector, prices in the North China market remain basically stable, with some companies having good order deliveries, and industry participants mainly restocking at low prices. Current industry daily production is about 146,000 tons, and this week, float glass inventories reached 76.443 million heavy boxes, an increase of 450,000 heavy boxes (+0.59%) from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 10.44%. The recently released "Three-Year Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in Key Industries" involves the glass industry, where technological renovation will raise industry costs and keep supply low, but demand expectations remain weak. Medium-term supply and demand pressure persists, and a short-term strong fluctuation is expected.⑸ The soda ash market lacks upward drivers, with prices consolidating at the bottom, downstream demand being lukewarm, and low-priced restocking occurring towards the end of the month. This week, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate for soda ash was 78.80%, compared to 81.03% last week, a decrease of 2.23%. On Thursday, total inventory at domestic soda ash producers was 1.7324 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons (+0.35%) compared to Monday. Currently, the basis price offers are: Hebei warehouse delivery for 09-50, Shahe delivered for 09-10, and Inner Mongolia manufacturer offers for 09-290 to 300. Looking to the medium term, supply-side drivers and unchanged demand suggest that the market will continue to fluctuate at low levels in the short term.⑹ In the methanol market, spot prices in Taicang are 2,750 yuan/ton, and the North Line of Inner Mongolia is at 2,340 yuan/ton, down by 50. Methanol prices are showing mixed performance, with futures fluctuating slightly upward, port prices supported by tight liquidity, and the near-term basis has shown strength.