Australian Dollar holds steady below 0.6900 on US–Iran talks uncertainty
The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note around 0.6895 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding talks to end the US war with Iran. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. All eyes will be on the US employment report later on Thursday.
Reuters reported on Sunday that the US and Iran agreed to pause recent hostilities in the Gulf and renew talks regarding their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. Both countries plan to meet in Qatar on Tuesday.
This development came after several days of strikes and counterstrikes since an Iranian projectile hit a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, with both Washington and Tehran accusing the other of breaking an interim ceasefire that was agreed to on June 17.
However, uncertainty remains high and any signs of rising tensions in the Middle East could provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for the pair.
On the Aussie’s front, the latest Australian employment data might help limit the Aussie’s losses. The country’s Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.4% in May from 4.5% in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Thursday. The figure came in line with the market consensus. Markets have priced in nearly a 19% chance of an RBA rate hike for August 10–11, according to the ASX RBA Rate Indicator.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The Capital Trends Behind the AI Computing Power Rebound: JPMorgan Fund Flows Reveal Retail Buy-In "Shrinking," Pouring Into Nvidia, SanDisk and Other Computing Power Core Companies
What has been revealed is not a "complete withdrawal of retail investors from AI," but rather a significant slowdown in overall market entry pace under macroeconomic pressure, with stock selections becoming more concentrated. In response to the Federal Reserve's unanimous decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the policy rate to 3.75%–4.00%, JPMorgan's assessment is: if this is simply a withdrawal of last year's "insurance-style rate cuts" during a shallow rate hike cycle—and if corporate earnings remain strong and the Middle East situation does not further spiral out of control—the stock market is still capable of absorbing rising interest rates.
Vote Result 7-2! Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates at Fastest Pace Since 1990, Does Not Signal a Clearly More Hawkish Stance
The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to 1.25%, marking the highest level since 1995 and the sixth increase since exiting the negative interest rate policy in March 2024. Out of the nine committee members, Asada and Sato voted against the hike, citing the current economic situation, reflecting ongoing internal disagreements over further tightening. In its statement, the Bank of Japan indicated it will continue to raise rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing, but the forward guidance language showed limited changes from the July statement, without sending notably more hawkish signals.
