HIP-4 open interest hits all-time high of $25M as World Cup fever grips Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid’s prediction market upgrade, HIP-4, just crossed a milestone that even its most optimistic backers probably didn’t expect this fast. Open interest on the platform reached an all-time high of approximately $24.77M, driven almost entirely by traders betting on who will lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy.
The numbers behind the World Cup frenzy
Weekly trading volume on HIP-4 hit $16.32M as of June 11, 2026. Of that, $9.63M, roughly 60%, came from World Cup price prediction markets alone. That represents a 20% increase week-over-week.
Sports-related markets now account for approximately 99% of all live open interest on HIP-4. Total HIP-4 open interest has since grown to around $51M, with sports OI contributing $49.52M of that figure. The champion market, where traders wager on the outright World Cup winner, is the dominant contract by a wide margin.
France, Argentina, and Spain are attracting the heaviest action. Every position is fully collateralized and settled in stablecoins within the Hyperliquid ecosystem.
What makes HIP-4 different
HIP-4 introduced fully collateralized binary outcome markets, meaning every contract resolves to either zero or one. The upgrade launched on Hyperliquid’s mainnet around May 2026, starting with recurring BTC binaries before expanding to the World Cup champion market.
One structural advantage that separates HIP-4 from competitors like Polymarket: it charges zero fees to open positions. Fees only apply when a position is closed or settled.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
"Hawkish Rate Hike"! Walsh's "Major Shift"
The Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with Waller fulfilling his hawkish commitments through decisive action and making it clear that current financial conditions are not tight, and this hike only removes "some accommodation," using strong language. UBS believes that Waller's policy response function has undergone a substantial shift compared to his predecessor—he is more sensitive to inflation and supply shocks, less concerned about the labor market, and has set a higher threshold for restrictive policy. The risks are clearly tilted toward interest rates remaining elevated for a longer period.
CITIC Securities: The Fed's September rate hike meets expectations, oil prices become key to follow-up, another rate hike of 25bps possible within the year
The pace and extent of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve largely depend on oil prices. According to CITIC Securities, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by another 25bps within this year and may remain on hold next year.
The Federal Reserve "raised interest rates as expected," but the market is concerned about "how many more times will there be after this?"
Analysts believe that Walsh emphasized closely monitoring inflation trends, but with only one month of data before the October meeting, it is insufficient to establish a "trend" for judgment, so action is expected again in December. The dot plot shows that 16 officials anticipate one more rate hike this year, but with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing 5%, traders are betting on a tighter path than the official dot plot suggests.
Another dot removed from the Fed dot plot; Waller continues to refuse giving the market a roadmap
In the latest dot plot released on September 16, only 18 dots appeared. The missing one belongs to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh. This is the second consecutive time that Walsh has refused to leave his prediction on the dot plot.
Crypto prices
More
