Bitcoin Holds Near $60K as Gold Safe-Haven Debate Reignites

Crypto News

Gold has not finished its upcycle, according to a fresh Goldman Sachs commodities note projecting the metal could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 even after a roughly four-month slump. The call lands well off gold's all-time high set earlier this year, yet the bank's research team argued that emerging-market central bank buying remains the dominant structural driver, sustaining demand even as Western investors retreat. Goldman noted gold has already climbed 123% since 2022 but sees both cyclical and structural forces supporting further upside. For a market obsessed with hedges, the forecast sharpens the question of where capital hides during stress — a question Bitcoin holders watch closely.

The bank leaned on a World Gold Council survey to back its thesis. According to that survey, 45% of 76 central banks polled between February and May said they plan to increase gold reserves within the next 12 months — described as a record share. Goldman framed this official-sector accumulation as the structural floor beneath its $4,900 target, distinct from speculative or retail demand. The data point matters because central bank buying tends to be price-insensitive and persistent, unlike fast money. It also underscores a multi-year reallocation away from dollar assets that has quietly reshaped reserve management across developing economies since 2022.

The mechanism Goldman emphasized is de-dollarization. After Russian foreign-exchange reserves were frozen in 2022, emerging-market central banks accelerated a shift out of dollar holdings and into gold, a trend the bank calls the core justification for its end-2026 price objective. Goldman's economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates this year before easing in the second half of next year, even as AI trading bot strategies price in a higher-for-longer policy stance. As that hawkish pressure fades, the bank expects gold exchange-traded fund demand — currently suppressed — to recover gradually.

Near term, the picture is far less rosy. Gold has fallen about 24% since late February and now sits more than 6% lower year-to-date, pressured by a firm US labor market, sticky inflation, and expectations the Fed could stay restrictive or even hike. Those forces have weighed on non-yielding assets, draining flows from gold ETFs. The pullback is a reminder that even a structurally bullish reserve thesis does not insulate the metal from cyclical rate risk — and that the same macro backdrop crushing gold ETF demand has kept risk appetite across crypto deeply subdued.

Against that backdrop, Robert Kiyosaki publicly conceded he had misjudged gold's near-term direction. In a June 29 post on X, the “Rich Dad Poor Dad” author wrote “I was wrong. Gold still crashing,” reversing a June 25 message in which he claimed the metal had “just made the turn.” Despite the admission, he reaffirmed a five-year target of $35,000 per ounce and urged followers to keep accumulating physical gold and silver. The candid reversal drew heavy engagement across financial circles, highlighting how stretched bullish positioning had become before the recent drawdown.

Kiyosaki's $35,000 figure is less a forecast than a thesis about a systemic financial reset — exploding global debt, fragile fiat currencies, and what he calls history's largest bubble bursting. Spot gold currently trades near $4,050 to $4,080 per ounce, down about 1.31% in the latest session and far below its roughly $5,600 peak earlier this year. Even so, the metal remains up more than 21% over the past year and over 126% across five years, leaving its long-run case as an inflation and currency hedge intact for many investors despite the sharp short-term correction.

Read together, these developments map a single arc: the global search for hard-asset hedges as faith in fiat and rate policy wavers. Our aggregate market data frames how crypto sits inside that arc — the Fear and Greed Index reads 12 (Extreme Fear), Bitcoin dominance stands at 70.0%, and total crypto market capitalization is near $1.71 trillion, with Bitcoin holding around $60,000. The 70% dominance signal shows capital huddling in the largest asset rather than rotating into the broader altcoin market, while debate over algorithmic stablecoins and dollar exposure mirrors gold's de-dollarization story. The same de-dollarization thesis driving central banks toward gold is, in our reading, the structural tailwind bulls cite for Bitcoin's digital-gold narrative.