Crypto analyst Aaron Dishner noted that Bitcoin recorded its lowest daily close since September 2024. According to Dishner, this move caused BTC to fall below its short-term support level, briefly forming a new local low around $57,800.
The analyst stated that the current outlook presents a contradictory picture to Bitcoin’s historically positive July performance. Dishner noted that July has historically been a green month for Bitcoin, with previous “bottom year” Julys of 2018 and 2022 seeing BTC recover an average of around 19 percent.
According to Dishner, this scenario could be consistent with a rebound in Bitcoin driven by overselling, continuing towards the weekly TBO Fast line. However, the analyst added that BTC is still strongly trending downwards on both the daily and weekly TBO indicators.
Dishner noted that Ethereum shows a similar picture to Bitcoin, stating that ETH maintains a strong bearish outlook on its daily and weekly TBO indicators. However, he added that the On-Balance Volume moving average lines for both Bitcoin and Ethereum have begun to flatten. According to the analyst, while this doesn’t confirm a new bull trend, it suggests that the current downtrend may be preparing to change character in the short term.
Excluding stablecoins, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is still in a strong bearish zone according to the daily TBO Cloud. However, Dishner noted that the OBV moving average is starting to flatten in this area as well. According to the analyst, similar market structures in past July lows were able to recover towards the weekly TBO Fast line before falling again.
Dishner also stated that a potential July recovery could put pressure on stablecoin dominance. According to the analyst, combined stablecoin dominance was hovering near its accumulation zone target of 13%. However, if Bitcoin experiences a rebound, this rate could fall to the lower band of the daily Cloud, i.e., to 11% or lower.
However, Dishner added that the bigger risks haven’t disappeared. According to the analyst, a similar early warning reversal signal was seen before the June decline. Furthermore, August and September remain historically weak months for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, Dishner stated that a potential rally in July should not be considered a confirmation that the long-term bottom has definitively formed, but rather a reaction rally stemming from oversold conditions.
On the altcoin side, according to the analyst, tactical opportunities are emerging in some assets. Dishner stated that Solana is working on a second TBO Close Short signal, which could be a bullish reversal signal in the short term. He noted that there is room for HYPE up to around $79,372, the 1,272 Fibonacci extension level, that a TBT bullish divergence structure is developing in BCH, that XMR could target the TBO resistance at $418.60 in an upward move, and that a second weekly TBT bullish divergence cluster is forming in KAS.
Dishner also noted that altcoins such as ICP, WLD, FET, SEI, WIF, and FARTCOIN are showing signs of rebound or reversal. Conversely, he said that some of the best-performing assets of late, like LAB, are starting to lose momentum.
