Both U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment and Manufacturing PMI Cool Down, Global Central Banks Continue Increasing Gold Reserves

During intraday trading on July 2, 2026, spot gold rose by more than 1%, reaching a high of $4,072 per ounce. According to the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) in the "2026 Global Public Investor Report," against the backdrop of increasing fragmentation in the global financial system, gold is being redefined by national central banks as a key reserve asset, with its strategic importance continuing to increase.

On the international front, data from the US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Manufacturing PMI indicate signs of cooling in the US economy, with 98,000 ADP jobs in June (previous: 122,000, expected: 118,000) and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 53.3% (previous: 54%, expected: 54%). Weaker employment data reduces market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes; looser interest rate expectations will support the upward trend of gold prices.

Shenwan Hongyuan Futures analysis points out that recently, due to expectations of rate hikes, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have risen, putting pressure on precious metals. However, as oil prices have fallen sharply, inflation risks have decreased, and the recovery in the US job market remains unstable, the necessity for rate hikes within the year is not strong , and the suppressive effect of high interest rates is likely to ease gradually. Watch for this week's nonfarm payrolls data. From a medium- and long-term perspective, there is a foundation for a sustained upward shift in the center of gravity of precious metal prices: the central risk of global geopolitical tensions has risen, political and economic orders are still being restructured, US fiscal pressure is intensifying, the de-dollarization process will continue, and the trend of global central banks increasing gold reserves persists.

According to JPMorgan, gold remains a high-quality allocation asset. The core rationale lies in ongoing gold purchases by global central banks, the demand for hedging amid excessive currency issuance and debt expansion, and limited mining supply providing continued support for gold prices. The institution's previous research report noted that within five years, gold prices rose by more than 170%, with geopolitical divergence and currency depreciation as the main driving forces. Short-term corrections are merely staging adjustments, while the foundation for a long-term bull market remains solid.

In the ETF market, as of the midday close on July 2, 2026, Broad Gold ETF (518600) rose by 2.17%. On a longer time frame, as of July 1, 2026, Broad Gold ETF had accumulated a gain of 11.82% over the past year. In terms of liquidity, Broad Gold ETF had a turnover rate of 4.43%, with half-day trading volume reaching 322 million yuan. Over a longer period, as of July 1, Broad Gold ETF’s average daily trading volume over the past week was 410 million yuan, ranking first among products tracking the same index.

Regarding capital inflows, over a longer time frame, as of July 1, 2026, Broad Gold ETF saw net capital inflows on five out of the past nine trading days, accumulating a total “attraction” of 103 million yuan.

Broad Gold ETF (518600), along with its off-exchange connections (Class A: 008986; Class C: 008987), uses the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s Shanghai Gold central pricing contract as its performance benchmark. This fund closely tracks gold prices, supports T+0 trading, with one lot approximately equal to one gram of gold, making it a convenient gold investment tool.

Editor: Zhu Henan