Prediction markets get the Hollywood treatment as Scott Stuber wins bidding war for Kalshi and Polymarket book
Prediction markets have officially crossed over from crypto-Twitter curiosity to Hollywood IP. Writer Zoë Bernard sold a book project centered on Kalshi and Polymarket to Scott Stuber, the former head of Netflix Films, in what’s being described as a competitive bidding war. The book hasn’t even been published yet.
Stuber, who now produces for Amazon MGM Studios, apparently saw enough narrative gold in the prediction market saga to fight for the rights.
The platforms behind the pitch
Kalshi operates as a regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It received CFTC approval for event contracts, meaning it plays by traditional financial rules.
Polymarket, on the other hand, lives in the crypto ecosystem. It uses blockchain-based infrastructure and order-book mechanics to let users trade on outcomes.
The numbers tell the story of just how quickly this space has exploded. Polymarket recorded $7.1 billion in trading volume in May 2026, down from a peak of $10.5 billion in March 2026. Its US platform alone contributed an additional $1.77 billion during May.
Bernard’s Vanity Fair feature, published on February 11, 2026, profiled the CEOs of both platforms and explored the broader cultural and financial implications of prediction markets. That article apparently caught Stuber’s eye, and the rest is, well, a developing Hollywood deal.
The bigger picture for prediction markets
In 2025, the two platforms entered a licensing agreement with the NHL to promote prediction markets around hockey.
The financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. But the fact that it was a competitive bidding situation signals that multiple producers or studios saw value in the project.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
From "higher for longer" to "the new normal for longer": Oil price shocks combined with the AI bond issuance boom, the financial market ushers in the 5% U.S. Treasury yield as the "new normal"
The borrowing costs of governments around the world continue to rise, with investors demanding higher returns to attract them to hold long-term bonds. The increase in US Treasury yields even prompted Treasury Secretary Scott Besant to announce an expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks—but this intervention failed to prevent the 10-year US Treasury yield from surpassing 5%, reaching its highest level in nearly 20 years.
Oil prices and interest rates are rising, but US stocks still trust TACO
Oil prices have surpassed $100, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist—Wall Street's bet on the "Trump will always back down" TACO trade is facing its most dangerous moment. The unexpected resilience of US stocks has actually reduced Trump's motivation for reconciliation; the real pressure valve lies in bond yields approaching the 4.946% warning line. Behind-the-scenes negotiations are reportedly ongoing, but this time, can the market's patience last until Trump changes course?
Claude leads 26% of R&D, Anthropic raises heated discussion on "AI developing AI" with its "AI slowdown theory"! The RSI training paradigm is catalyzing a major expansion in computing power demand.
Anthropic PBC's Claude chatbot has driven more than a quarter of the company's AI research and development work. The company found that Claude "led" 26% of Anthropic's R&D efforts and collaborated with employees to complete about 90% of the work. Anthropic plans to introduce third-party evaluators within the company and grant them access to internal processes, systems, and data to help track the progress of AI development.
Crypto prices
More
