Euro: Slightly reduced upside as policy paths diverge – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO’s Bill Diviney expects the US Dollar to weaken broadly but notes slightly less upside for EUR/USD after revising the bank’s ECB outlook and incorporating French and US election risks. With the ECB seen delivering one more hike and the Fed staying more dovish than markets, ABN AMRO now projects EUR/USD at 1.18 for 2026 and 1.23 for 2027.

Euro gains tempered by election risks

"We still expect the US dollar to weaken more broadly."

"However, we have made a modest adjustment to our EUR/USD forecasts because of two developments."

"Taken together, these factors point to slightly less upside for EUR/USD this year and next year."

"Our new year-end forecast is 1.18 for 2026 and 1.23 for 2027."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)