CryptoQuant: The Next Bitcoin Parabolic Rally May Require Over $1 Trillion in New Capital

According to ChainCatcher, and citing CryptoQuant data, the capital efficiency of each Bitcoin bull market cycle is decreasing significantly. In the 2011 cycle, a net inflow of approximately $2.8 billion drove about a 55,000% increase; in 2015, around $69 billion corresponded to nearly 10,000%; in 2018, approximately $365 billion produced around 2,000%; for this current cycle since 2022, approximately $697 billion has generated only a 689% return.

In 2011, about $5 million in new capital was enough to double the price of Bitcoin, whereas in this cycle it requires around $101 billion. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that this means Bitcoin needs to become a core macro asset rather than just a retail-driven ETF trade, and the next parabolic market move would require absorbing over $1 trillion in new funds, far exceeding the current level of institutional adoption. However, this viewpoint faces practical challenges: over the past month, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen record levels of outflows, Bitcoin ended the first half of the year in loss, and retail capital is withdrawing instead of institutional capital accelerating inflows.