Video: The case for a Canadian dollar comeback in the second half of the year

USD/CAD started the year at 1.37 and has risen to 1.42. I expect we round trip. The USMCA negotiations are top of mind right now but the ‘ask’ side from the US is manageable and I see plenty of signs of confidence on the Canadian side. There will be some token concessions but – after some brinksmanship – there should be some clarity and a relief rally. If anything, the risks are all to the CAD upside as there is a high likelihood of lower tariffs for steel, aluminum and perhaps lumber.

On Monday we got the Q2 business outlook survey from the Bank of Canada. In Q1, it showed solid business sentiment despite the headwinds on trade and the Iran war. Most importantly, the outlook for investment spending rose to the highest since 2024 and the second best levels since 2022.

I spoke with BNN about the outlook for the loonie but we also touched on some bigger trends in the world, including anti-immigration and the hidden drag that AI will have on the US dollar.