Pantera Capital: Hyperliquid's potential accessible market daily trading volume is around $10 trillion, with regulation remaining the biggest risk

According to ChainCatcher, citing a post by crypto venture capital fund Pantera Capital, the potential addressable market size for Hyperliquid is estimated at a notional daily trading volume of around $10 trillion, which includes approximately $200 billion in 0DTE options and leveraged ETF trading, about $2 trillion in commodity derivatives trading, and around $8 trillion in foreign exchange derivatives trading that is currently almost entirely off-chain.

Pantera stated that if Hyperliquid can consistently capture a low single-digit share of the total trading volume mentioned above, its income potential could reach five times its current level. According to estimates, if the HIP-3 market achieves an annualized notional trading volume of $36.5 trillion and secures a 1% market share, under the assumptions of a 2 basis point blended fee rate and 50% Hyperliquid economic split, Hyperliquid could generate approximately $3.7 billion in revenue.

However, Pantera also pointed out that regulation is the biggest risk faced by Hyperliquid. Perpetual contracts are not yet fully open in the United States. If the US legalizes such products in the future and launches regulated platforms, Hyperliquid may face more intense competition, and some US user trading volume could shift to compliant venues. Pantera also believes that in the future, Hyperliquid may, like other platforms, launch a regulated version targeting the US market.