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Dip buying and internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve help push gold prices higher, but the upside is likely to be limited.

Dip buying and internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve help push gold prices higher, but the upside is likely to be limited.

汇通财经汇通财经2026/07/09 12:10
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By:汇通财经

Fxstreet July 9 News—— On Thursday (July 9) during the European session, international gold saw a mild rebound as a large number of bottom-fishing investors optimistic about medium- and long-term gold prices gradually entered the market, putting an end to the previous three consecutive days of decline. Many investors believe that the recent decline has excessively released bearish pressure, and gold prices have now entered a value allocation range. This is the main short-term driving force for the stabilization and rebound in gold prices.



On Thursday (July 9) during the European session, international gold saw a mild rebound as a large number of bottom-fishing investors optimistic about medium- and long-term gold prices gradually entered the market, putting an end to the previous three consecutive days of decline. Many investors believe that the recent decline has excessively released bearish pressure, and gold prices have now entered a value allocation range. This is the main short-term driving force for the stabilization and rebound in gold prices.

Dip buying and internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve help push gold prices higher, but the upside is likely to be limited. image 0

After the release of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, the US Dollar Index fell slightly. The hawkish tone in the minutes was somewhat lower than some market participants’ earlier pessimistic expectations. However, geopolitical risks remain significant. The renewed escalation between the US and Iran continues to support high international crude oil prices, driving global concerns about prolonged elevated inflation. Gold itself does not generate interest income, and a high inflation environment forces the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening policy stance, which significantly limits the upside ceiling for precious metals prices.

The minutes showed severe divisions within the Fed, with policymakers evenly split over whether to continue raising rates. Nine officials anticipate at least one more hike before year-end, while the other nine favor keeping rates unchanged. This internal division makes it difficult for the market to predict the Fed's future policy direction, causing investors to wobble between expectations of loosening or tightening monetary policy and resulting in uncertain risk-aversion sentiment in the market.

Although the minutes did not materially reinforce the case for further rate hikes, they also released very few dovish signals to support rate cuts. This shattered the market’s earlier optimism for a rapid rate-cut cycle later this year. Market participants are now focusing entirely on upcoming US economic indicators, waiting for data to provide clearer guidance.

Currently, the market prices in about a 65% chance of a Fed rate hike in September. Meanwhile, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will continue to drive energy prices higher, adding further uncertainty to inflation trends and presenting new challenges for the Fed’s policy decisions. If crude oil prices continue to surge, it will be very difficult for the US CPI to return to the 2% target, and the Fed will be forced to maintain its hawkish stance, which is a long-term bearish factor for gold.

Given these factors, real yields and the Dollar Index are unlikely to fall sharply in the short term. The strong dollar is difficult to reverse, and gold's competitive disadvantage compared to yield-bearing assets will persist. This makes it hard for gold prices to launch a sustained and strong rebound, and any recovery is likely to be limited.

The market will next focus on US initial jobless claims data and public speeches from several Fed officials. Such labor market data reflect the health of the US labor market, while officials’ comments can reveal their latest views on rate hikes and inflation, providing key clues for future monetary policy outlook. In addition, developments in the Middle East will continue to be closely watched by investors; if oil prices rise further, inflation concerns will be exacerbated, putting additional pressure on gold’s potential for gains.


Technical Analysis


Dip buying and internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve help push gold prices higher, but the upside is likely to be limited. image 1
(Spot gold daily chart Source: Fxstreet)

After gold prices broke below the symmetrical triangle pattern and the 200-day moving average, they fell all the way to near the 3940 low, hitting the lowest level since October last year. After the bulls’ support lines were repeatedly breached, a large number of programmed stop-loss orders were triggered, which intensified the previous drop in gold prices.

Although gold prices have temporarily stabilized, they are still trading below the downtrend line, the 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with the medium- to long-term technical pattern remaining bearish. All moving averages are exerting downward pressure from above, and the medium-term bearish trend has not reversed just because of the short-term rebound.

Bearish traders will wait for gold prices to break below the key level of 3940, creating a new stage low. At that point, prices will likely further test the strong support level at 3800. If the 3940 support fails, bearish market sentiment will deepen and the downside space will be fully opened.

If gold prices start to rebound, they must first hold above the 4100 level before attempting to break 4200, which is exactly where the downtrend line and resistance converge. Successful breakout of this zone will target 4370 next, and then the 50-day moving average near 4500. Only by steadily holding above 4500 can gold escape medium-term bearish pressure and gradually return to an upward channel.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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