Wells Fargo economists expect that the U.S. July CPI report should reinforce the view that the worst inflationary impacts from the high-tariff system and Middle East conflicts are now behind us. Price increases appear to be driven by a limited number of categories, rather than a widespread surge in underlying price pressures. However, although the scope of inflationary pressures is narrowing, continued strength in prices for certain sectors indicates that achieving the 2% inflation target may s
智通财经2026/08/12 07:16Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Deutsche Bank: After the three major central banks hiked rates simultaneously, the market may once again underestimate the terminal interest rate
Deutsche Bank points out that as central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan are tightening policy simultaneously, the market may still be underpricing the eventual terminal rates. With oil prices remaining high, inflation may spill over into core inflation and wages. Moreover, financial conditions have not tightened in tandem, which could weaken the effect of rate hikes. Citing the experience of 2022, Deutsche Bank notes that the market then expected a total of around 200 basis points of Fed rate hikes in the first year, but the final figure exceeded 400 basis points, illustrating that the market often underestimates the terminal rate.
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