Bitcoin’s valuation has deteriorated sharply, but two on-chain measures — the MVRV Z-Score and Adjusted Realized Price Bands — still point to a correction rather than broad capitulation. The key question is whether Bitcoin can remain above the $57.6K active-coin cost basis.
On-Chain Data Shows Cooling, Not Capitulation
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score has fallen to 0.41, well below its historical mean of 1.69, according to on-chain analysis by market analyst Axel Adler Jr.
MVRV Z-Score measures Bitcoin’s market value relative to its realized value while accounting for historical volatility. Higher readings indicate stronger valuation, while very low or negative readings have historically coincided with periods of severe market stress.
The indicator has fallen sharply from around 2.5 in mid-2025, when Bitcoin traded above $100,000. It later reached a summer low of 0.18 before recovering to about 0.40–0.41.
What Bitcoin’s Key Levels Mean
Bitcoin is trading at $63.76K, about 10.7% above the $57.6K Adjusted Realized Price, an estimate of the average cost basis of active coins.
The valuation bands are calculated from that cost basis: $57.6K is the 1.0× band, $72K is the 1.25× band, and $46.1K is the 0.8× band. These are on-chain valuation levels, not traditional technical support or resistance.
A sustained break below $57.6K would put Bitcoin below the estimated cost basis of active coins and signal greater market stress. The $46.1K band represents a deeper-stress zone. Conversely, a sustained move above $72K would strengthen the case for a recovery in valuation.
“Both charts point to the same market state. MVRV Z-Score shows a sharp valuation cooldown, while the price bands confirm that Bitcoin is still trading above the average cost basis,” Axel Adler Jr. said. “The market has weakened but has not yet entered a deep-stress regime.“
Why This Matters
For now, Bitcoin remains above the estimated cost basis of active coins, even as its valuation has cooled significantly. A sustained break below $57.6K would mark an important shift in the on-chain market structure and could increase selling pressure.
