The US announces a package of economic measures against Iran, sending international crude oil prices soaring over 2%.

智通财经2026/08/20 11:16

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⑴ On Thursday, international crude oil surged over 2%, with prices rising to approximately $86.70 per barrel, reaching the highest level since July 24.⑵ U.S. President Trump introduced a large-scale economic restriction plan against Iran, aiming to sever Iran's external financial and commercial ties, covering banks, enterprises, ship registration, capital flows, and smuggling networks across multiple sectors.⑶ The U.S. hopes to intensify economic pressure to prompt Iran to initiate negotiations regarding regional conflicts, its nuclear program, and control of the Strait of Hormuz.⑷ The United States continues its blockade of Iranian ports, while crude oil from other Gulf exporting countries can still be shipped via the Strait of Hormuz; Trump stated that substantial volumes of oil are still passing through the strait.⑸ One day before the above measures were announced, the United Arab Emirates, under allegations of missile attacks, declared the suspension of its economic dealings with Iran.

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Deutsche Bank points out that as central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan are tightening policy simultaneously, the market may still be underpricing the eventual terminal rates. With oil prices remaining high, inflation may spill over into core inflation and wages. Moreover, financial conditions have not tightened in tandem, which could weaken the effect of rate hikes. Citing the experience of 2022, Deutsche Bank notes that the market then expected a total of around 200 basis points of Fed rate hikes in the first year, but the final figure exceeded 400 basis points, illustrating that the market often underestimates the terminal rate.

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