Thai Baht: Bullish bias against US Dollar faces BoT sensitivity – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that Thai Baht (THB) has rallied to a two‑month high on softer US Dollar (USD), lower Oil prices, strong electronics exports and Gold-related flows. However, with USD/THB nearing oversold conditions and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) meeting approaching, policymakers’ sensitivity to excessive currency strength may limit further appreciation in the near term.

Baht strength meets policy caution

"THB extended gains towards a two-month high yesterday, supported by a softer USD and some relief from lower oil prices."

"The renewed rally in gold also provided support at the margin given Thailand’s sizeable domestic gold market, while strength in electronics exports remains a modest positive for THB."

"That said, we would be cautious about attributing too much of the recent THB strength to the tech cycle."

"Focus this week turns to the BoT meeting (Wed). After the recent THB gains, softer domestic growth and policymakers’ sensitivity towards excessive currency strength may limit the extent of further appreciation in the near term."

"Bearish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI is near oversold conditions. Some consolidation not ruled out in the interim. Resistance at 32.87 (100 DMA), 33.14 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). Support at 32.30/35 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo)."