The price of crude oil in New York's over-the-counter market surged past the $85 mark, with intraday gains exceeding 2.5%. As one of the core commodities in the market, fluctuations in crude oil prices often have a ripple effect on the entire energy industry chain, the transportation sector, and even global inflation trends. This recent upward movement has attracted close attention from many market participants.

Deutsche Bank points out that as central banks in the US, Europe, and Japan are tightening policy simultaneously, the market may still be underpricing the eventual terminal rates. With oil prices remaining high, inflation may spill over into core inflation and wages. Moreover, financial conditions have not tightened in tandem, which could weaken the effect of rate hikes. Citing the experience of 2022, Deutsche Bank notes that the market then expected a total of around 200 basis points of Fed rate hikes in the first year, but the final figure exceeded 400 basis points, illustrating that the market often underestimates the terminal rate.