HYPE trades at $82.92 after $1.2 billion token unlock, analyst warns of $60 risk

Token unlock triggers increased volatility

In the past 24 hours, HYPE’s trading volume reached $863.67 million with a total market capitalization of $20.87 billion. The token remains inside the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Hyperliquid released 14.18 million new HYPE tokens, equivalent to approximately 1.4% of its fixed maximum supply of 1 billion and worth around $1.2 billion based on current prices.

About half of the newly issued tokens were allocated to early backers and insiders, while the other half was split between community distribution and the Hyper Foundation. This unlock has put noticeable pressure on the token’s market, although some institutional players have continued to accumulate.

Resistance at $87, downside risk highlighted

Crypto market analyst Crypto Patel has emphasized the importance of the $87 resistance zone, describing it as a key level that HYPE failed to reclaim recently. The token reversed sharply from the $86.71 high down to $78.50 and has since struggled to move above the $82 area, which may now act as resistance following the breach.

Crypto Patel pointed out that as long as HYPE remains below $87, there is a risk of the token dropping toward $60 or potentially even $50 if further selling pressure emerges.

Patel indicated that a retest of the $84 to $85 range could provide another opportunity for investors to exit if the price faces renewed resistance.

Ted Pillows, another analyst posting on X, reported a significant purchase of $20.5 million worth of HYPE by a single holder, describing it as “smart money accumulating quality alts,” which suggests ongoing institutional interest despite price headwinds.

Institutional activity and protocol initiatives

Hyperliquid Strategies, a Nasdaq-listed fund manager specializing in digital assets, increased its HYPE treasury holdings to 29.3 million tokens after raising $647 million in new equity financing. Meanwhile, Bitwise announced that its spot Hyperliquid ETF is actively staking large amounts of HYPE, according to recent filings.

The Hyperliquid protocol has rolled out its AQAv2 mechanism, which automatically uses returns from its extensive USDC reserves to buy back and permanently remove HYPE tokens from circulation. The first round of buybacks and burns is expected to begin in early October. In addition, platform fees are being allocated to a dedicated assistance fund to facilitate further token burns.

Mini dictionary: AQAv2, an automated buyback and burn mechanism used by Hyperliquid, reinvests protocol-generated revenues—often denominated in stablecoins such as USDC—into purchasing and permanently destroying HYPE tokens, aiming to support token value and reduce circulating supply over time.

Hyperliquid dominance in decentralized perpetuals

Hyperliquid has taken the lead in the rapidly expanding decentralized perpetuals sector, processing $249.2 billion in notional trading activity. This figure far surpasses its closest rival’s $106 billion total, underlining Hyperliquid’s dominant position in the market.

Growing attention from regulators accompanies Hyperliquid’s market share. US President Donald Trump cited ongoing efforts by CFTC Chair Michael Selig to craft a regulatory framework that could one day allow Hyperliquid’s retail market entry in the United States. However, as of now, Hyperliquid is still not licensed for US retail users.

Short-term HYPE price trends are expected to depend heavily on how newly unlocked tokens are absorbed—whether through staking mechanisms, ETF inflows, or continued activity by corporate treasuries and institutional funds.

Some analysts contend that if institutional demand remains robust and newly unlocked tokens are staked or removed via buybacks, HYPE could stabilize despite current volatility.