Macquarie Now Sees Bank of Canada Hiking Rates This December From Prior October Forecast

MT newswire2026/08/31 15:33

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11:33 AM EDT, 08/31/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Macquarie Group said it now expects the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 25 bps in December, pushing back its previous October call as intensifying US-Canada trade tensions warrant a more cautious approach. The BoC is widely expected to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% at Wednesday's policy meeting, while retaining a cautiously positive view on growth, wrote David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, in Monday's note. Strong second-quarter gross domestic product and recent employment gains provide support, but policymakers are likely to emphasize the growing risks from the trade war with the United States and the limits of monetary policy in cushioning its direct economic impact, added Doyle. Macquarie estimates that Canada's economy and labor market will stay resilient, with 50 bps of additional rate hikes expected in the first half of 2027 as growth becomes more broad-based.

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