Kroger Could Miss Quarterly Identical Sales Views Amid Challenging Grocery Backdrop, Oppenheimer Says

02:44 PM EDT, 09/03/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Kroger's (KR) fiscal second-quarter identical sales are expected to underperform market estimates amid a challenging grocery business environment, likely prompting the company to revise its full-year outlook, Oppenheimer said Thursday. The supermarket chain is scheduled to report results Sept. 11. Oppenheimer projects flat identical sales, excluding fuel, for the second quarter, compared with Wall Street's estimate of 1.1% growth. "We have continued to see weaker industry data points lately, with softer growth at other conventional players from Publix to [Albertsons (ACI)], driven in part by ongoing headwinds on the pharmacy and (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) fronts and with a number of players citing a weaker consumer backdrop," Oppenheimer analysts, including Rupesh Parikh, said in a note to clients. "We also expect some adverse impact related to the Cyclospora outbreak." The brokerage projects Kroger's second-quarter earnings at $1.04 a share, versus the Street's $1.05 views, with the result likely driven by Oppenheimer's outlook for "stronger fuel profits," according to the note. The company is likely to trim guidance towards the lower end of its full-year outlook amid the tough grocery backdrop, continued pharmacy headwinds, and "still-elevated" diesel costs, the analysts said. "We do not believe investors will be surprised by a (second-quarter) comp shortfall," the analysts wrote. "In addition, if management guides towards the lower end of the (full-year) range, we think this is largely already priced in." Kroger shares were up 1% in Thursday afternoon trade. The stock has lost 5.9% in value so far this year. In June, the company reiterated its fiscal 2026 outlook, including its expectations for identical sales growth, excluding fuel, of between 1% and 2%. Earlier this year, Kroger agreed to acquire food and pharmacy retailer Giant Eagle in a $1.65 billion deal. "From here, we are focused on updated (full-year) guidance and more comprehensive details behind management's turnaround efforts, which we expect to hear more on at the company's investor day in late October," Oppenheimer said Thursday. Last month, Walmart's (WMT) fiscal second-quarter US comparable sales growth decelerated more than the Street expected amid a pharmacy-related headwind, while the retail giant issued a soft earnings outlook for the ongoing three-month period. Target (TGT) lifted its full-year outlook as tariff refunds helped double the retailer's fiscal second-quarter earnings year over year. Price: 58.89, Change: +0.67, Percent Change: +1.15