US Bond Market Is Flashing a Major Warning: Is This the Setup Bitcoin Was Built For?

Inflation is heating up again, as evidenced by the PPI data that came out on Thursday. Treasury yields are approaching 5%, and the US government is trying to stabilize the bond market while proposing another trillion-dollar stimulus program.

The immediate implications for bitcoin are bearish. However, the longer-term picture is considerably more complicated.

Bad For BTC (For Now)

August producer prices rose 5.4% year-over-year, which was just slightly over expectations. At the same time, Brent crude jumped past $100 this week as the situation in the Middle East sees no actual improvement and supply disruptions continue. The probability of a rate hike after the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on September 16 is over 70%, according to futures markets and some prediction platforms.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to just under 5%, despite the Treasury’s ongoing efforts to improve liquidity in long-dated government debt. Higher yields typically mean tighter financial conditions, a stronger incentive to hold relatively safe government debt, and, unfortunately for the bitcoin bulls, less appetite for speculative assets.

This helps explain why BTC’s initial rally that drove it from under $65,000 to $82,000 hit a brick wall, and the asset has been unable to push through in the past few weeks. However, that’s only half the story.

Bullish Long Term

As previously reported, the Treasury initially doubled the long-term buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation on August 19, which triggered the first BTC leg up. At the same time, long-term yields immediately dipped, and the dollar weakened.

The Treasury Department went a step further earlier this week, increasing the purchases to $6 billion. Now, though, there’s President Trump’s proposition to give every American adult $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress in November. According to estimates, this could cost somewhere between $1.20 trillion and $1.35 trillion and would require congressional approval.

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We have inflation remaining too high for the Fed to ease monetary policy, while massive deficits and rising interest costs are simultaneously creating pressure for lower borrowing costs.

The Kobeissi Letter argued that these forces will favor asset owners and specifically pointed to BTC, gold, and stocks. However, this doesn’t guarantee that BTC will automatically thrive in the current economic structure. In fact, the path forward could be painful at first.

If inflation keeps rising and the Fed responds with additional rate hikes, BTC could face more pressure as yields climb. The bullish narrative emerges later if fiscal stress eventually forces policymakers toward heavier intervention, looser financial conditions, or policies that expand normal spending.