CITIC Securities: Probability of a rate hike in September rises to 87%, gold to fall first then rise

CITIC Securities research report pointed out that the US released August CPI data: overall CPI met expectations, and core CPI exceeded expectations, but the rise in inflation was mainly due to a one-off service disturbance, and the likelihood of continued heating is low. After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September rose to 87%. The market has largely priced in expectations for a near-term rate hike, triggering a selloff and then a rebound in gold. Looking ahead, the market has fully priced in a near-term rate hike; as long as the Federal Reserve does not signal continued rate hikes, gold could bottom out and rebound once all the negatives are priced in: a rate hike in September would mean the uncertainty is resolved; if there is no rate hike, short-term rate pressure would ease and the credit hedging property of gold could resonate, supporting a rebound in gold prices.