J.P. Morgan tracks Apple (AAPL.US) supply: iPhone 18 Pro series sees strong demand, delivery times extend rapidly

According to Finet News APP, JPMorgan released a research report stating that in the second week of the bank's tracking of Apple (AAPL.US) product supply, delivery cycles were further extended, with the average delivery time for the iPhone 18 Pro series increasing by 4 days. Compared to the first week, the iPhone 18 Pro’s delivery cycle grew by 16 days (last year, the iPhone 17 Pro delivery cycle increased by 9 days from week 1 to week 2), and the iPhone 18 Pro Max’s delivery cycle increased by 11 days (last year, the iPhone 17 Pro Max’s delivery cycle increased by 7 days).

The larger extension compared to the same period last year has already narrowed the delivery cycle gap observed by the bank in week 1. Currently, delivery cycles for both Pro models in the US and Europe are basically on par with the iPhone 17 series during the same period last year, while China remains the only region where the delivery time is still below last year's level, though the gap is narrowing.

Although this suggests that the current demand for the Pro series over the past few days is surpassing the previous product cycle, given that the iPhone Duo will not open for pre-orders until October 16, the key data point to focus on next is how much the delivery cycle decelerates after entering the third week. After that, supply chain feedback on adjustments to production plans (usually appearing around November) will offer a more definite signal to judge demand, including whether consumers will further upgrade to purchase Pro models priced at $1,199 or above.

Global iPhone Tracking: Delivery cycles for both models further extended compared to midweek, now in line with last year

Across the regions tracked by JPMorgan, home delivery times for the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max averaged 23 and 30 days in week 2, respectively (midweek averages were 19 and 26 days; week 1 averages were 7 and 19 days). In comparison, during week 2 last year, delivery times averaged 24 and 31 days for the iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max, respectively; two years ago, the iPhone 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max delivery times averaged 23 and 29 days, respectively.

US Market Tracking: Delivery cycles extended compared to midweek, both models match last year’s level

In the US, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max delivery cycles reached 21 and 28 days, respectively (17 and 24 days midweek; 2 and 22 days in week 1), identical to the 21 and 28 days recorded for iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max during the same period last year.

As for in-store availability, all tracked versions of the iPhone 18 Pro can be picked up in-store on September 19; certain Pro Max versions (silver and black) will also be available for in-store pickup then, while the Burgundy and Glacier versions cannot be picked up in-store. It is worth noting that the US accounts for about 34% of iPhone shipments.

China Market Tracking: Delivery cycles for both models extended, but still below last year; Pro Max not available for in-store pickup

In China, the delivery cycles for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max reached 27 and 33 days, respectively (25 and 29 days midweek; 13 and 21 days in week 1). In contrast, during week 2 last year, the delivery cycles for the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max were 30 and 37 days, respectively.

Although the delivery cycle gap for Pro models compared to the same period last year has narrowed (currently 3 days, compared to 7 days midweek), China is still the only region with delivery cycles below last year’s level. Regarding in-store pickup, some iPhone 18 Pro versions (Burgundy and Black) can be collected in-store on September 19, while the Pro Max remains unavailable for in-store pickup. Notably, China accounts for around 19% of iPhone shipments.

Europe Market Tracking: Similar to other regions, delivery cycles further extended compared to midweek; Germany matches last year, UK only 1 day difference

Similar to other regions, delivery cycles in Europe further extended compared to midweek, with Germany matching last year's level and the UK trailing by only one day. In Germany, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max delivery cycles are 22 and 29 days, respectively (18 and 25 days midweek; 5 and 16 days in week 1), identical to the 22 and 29 days of the same period last year.

Meanwhile, in the UK, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max delivery cycles are 21 and 28 days, respectively (17 and 24 days midweek; 9 and 19 days in week 1), compared to 22 and 29 days one year ago during the same period.

Regarding in-store pickup, in Germany, some iPhone 18 Pro versions (Glacier and Black) can be collected on September 19; in the UK, all iPhone 18 Pro versions except Burgundy can be picked up in-store on the same day; while in both markets, the Pro Max is not available for in-store pickup. Note that Germany and the UK account for approximately 3% and 4% of iPhone shipments, respectively.