These 4 Retail Stocks Are Winning the Race for Inflation-Weary Bargain Hunters -- Barrons.com

By Teresa Rivas

From the wealth gap to political polarization, America is a divided place. But there is one thing we can all agree on: wanting a good deal.

Cumulative inflation is up about a third since the prepandemic era and still rising, sending more six-figure earners to do their shopping at Walmart.

So the bargain hunting highlighted in Bernstein's latest survey doesn't come as much of a surprise-and instead reinforces trends that have been building in recent years.

"Across income groups, we find that low prices are the only consistently important preference," writes analyst Zhihan Ma.

In fact, value and convenience are still top of mind for consumers, she writes, which should benefit big box retailers and discounters.

When it comes to physical stores, consumers still want clean locations and a good selection along with their low prices, but they are grading on a curve. Respondents had lower expectations for dollar stores in general, while brand selection and opening hours were more likely to be make or break for mass merchants and warehouse clubs.

Nonetheless, brick and mortar stores matter less at a time when e-commerce is still growing by leaps and bounds, as shoppers also value convenience almost as much as they value low prices.

And while low-income Americans have lower expectations overall, they aren't willing to pay more to save time, unlike higher-income consumers.

As for specific retailers, Ma notes shoppers are responding to company initiatives.

"Walmart and Target shoppers put more importance on the store experience, reflecting Walmart's store remodel programs and Target's reinvestment," she writes. "Costco shoppers care about parking, just as high gas prices drive more traffic to Costco. Sam's Club members prioritize fast checkout, supported by Scan & Go."

That applies all the way down to dollar stores, with Dollar General's shoppers prizing its selection of fresh produce and other categories, while Dollar Tree's new multi-price point strategy has its consumers focused on faster checkout and product assortment.

Private label products are also an asset at a time when people up and down the income spectrum have to budget, she notes. Cult followings for Costco's Kirkland Signature and Target's well-known house brands are obvious examples, while Walmart's Great Value is the best known example.

In the end, this is more evidence for the bull cases for some of the strongest retailers.

"Based on consumer preferences, we continue to see retailers with strong pricing power, a convenient shopping experience, and a broad assortment to be well positioned," Ma writes. "Within our coverage, Walmart tops the list, while improvements at Target and dollar stores are being noticed by shoppers."

She has Outperform ratings on Walmart (a Barron's pick as well), Costco, Dollar General, and Five Below, and Market Perform ratings on Dollar Tree and Target.

Retail sales have remained robust, but with ongoing inflation, last week's interest-rate increase, and abysmal consumer sentiment, investors have been reluctant to buy into the sector.

Both the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF are in the red for 2026, although individual companies have seen success, such as Target with its turnaround story and Ross Stores from its big traffic gains.

So stock gains aren't off the table for retailers, even if they're hard won.

Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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September 22, 2026 15:40 ET (19:40 GMT)