Weekly Forex Preview: US Non-Farm Payrolls, Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision, and Iran War

Reuters, September 25 - Next week, U.S. inflation and employment data, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, and a slew of central bank official speeches will jointly guide market direction alongside the U.S.-Iran situation.

The busy U.S. economic calendar includes: September consumer confidence index, August JOLTS job openings, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, personal income and spending data, factory orders, final Q2 gross domestic product (GDP), September S&P and ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' indices (PMI), ADP employment report, and nonfarm payrolls report. September nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 100,000, with the unemployment rate anticipated to inch up to 4.2%.

Federal Reserve officials Williams, Logan, Kashkari, Goolsbee, Musalem, Barkin, Schmid, and Collins will deliver speeches.

The eurozone will release the economic sentiment survey, September consumer confidence index and inflation expectations, final manufacturing PMI, preliminary September HICP, and August unemployment rate. Germany will publish August retail sales, September unemployment rate, and inflation data. European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak on Thursday.

UK data will be limited to the Q2 current account, GDP, and final September manufacturing PMI. With the market’s anticipation of a rate hike in November heating up, speeches by Bank of England officials Ramsden, Taylor, Mann, and Governor Bailey will draw close attention.

Japan will release a flurry of data this week, including August industrial production, retail sales and employment data, Q3 Tankan survey, final September manufacturing PMI, and Tokyo CPI. The Bank of Japan will publish minutes from the July meeting on Monday, but market focus will be on Thursday's summary of opinions from the September meeting.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy decision and statement, with Governor Bullock holding a press conference; on Wednesday, August CPI data will be released.

Canada’s July GDP will also be in focus, and Bank of Canada officials Toni Gravelle and Carolyn Rogers will speak.

China will announce August industrial enterprise profits on Monday and publish official September PMI and RatingDog PMI on Wednesday. The Chinese market will be closed from October 1 to 7 for the National Day holiday.

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(Editor: Di Zhang)

((patrick.zhang@thomsonreuters.com;))