Comcast Broadband Outlook Weakens as Competition Intensifies, KeyBanc Says

11:28 AM EDT, 09/25/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Comcast (CMCSA) is unlikely to see an annual improvement in third-quarter broadband subscriber numbers due to the media and connectivity giant's apparent unwillingness to match its competitors' offers, KeyBanc Capital Markets said Thursday in a report. KeyBanc said the company may lose about 140,000 net broadband customers in the current quarter, exceeding its prior projection for a decline of 125,000 subscribers and the market consensus for a 119,000 drop. In the third quarter of 2025, Comcast's domestic broadband customers fell by 104,000. At a technology conference earlier in September, Comcast Chief Financial Officer Jason Armstrong said the company continued to see "irrational" competition, with rivals offering one-gigabit service for $30 to $40 per month, according to a FactSet transcript. "$30 to $40 as a starting point on a gig product, which is your flagship product and higher speeds and fixed wireless, is not a rational price point right," Armstrong said. "We think we've been incredibly rational in our approach to the market." At the same event, Verizon Communications (VZ) CEO Daniel Schulman said his company was seeing a "good (third) quarter around broadband," which is expected to be a "growth driver going forward," according to a FactSet transcript. AT&T (T) CEO John Stankey said his company intends to offer "affordable" broadband solutions to its customers. CFO Armstrong's comments underscore Comcast's reluctance to match competitor pricing, and "while there is always some ebb and flow in promos, we don't expect competitors to back off as they are part of their broader convergence roadmap," KeyBanc said. KeyBanc downgraded Comcast stock to underweight from sector weight with an $18 price target. The company's shares fell 2.1% in Friday trading and have dropped 22% this year. KeyBanc said Comcast is likely to see incremental churn if it doesn't match rival offers, while doing so could be dilutive to its average revenue per user. "Neither situation is a positive outcome, in our view," the report said. For 2027, the brokerage expects broadband net additions to deteriorate to a decline of 665,000 amid potential incremental competitive pressures. Near the end of June, Comcast disclosed plans to split into two publicly traded companies, separating its NBCUniversal and Sky media businesses from its broadband and connectivity operations. KeyBanc said it doesn't believe the NBCUniversal spinoff will be a catalyst to the stock as the fundamentals of both businesses' key assets are deteriorating with potential "multiple compression." Comcasts' theme park business is also likely to stay under pressure amid weak attendance in Orlando, Florida, and Osaka, Japan, the report said. Price: 21.66, Change: -0.47, Percent Change: -2.12