The price spread is the clue connecting petroleum products; pay attention to the relationship between diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil.
智通财经2026/09/27 11:36Show original
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- It is relatively easy to track crude oil prices through Brent, WTI, or even ICE diesel, but clearer trends often appear in the spreads; spreads provide more insight into what is happening in the market than absolute prices.
- In refineries, product yields are not fixed and can always be optimized to increase yields of jet fuel over diesel, diesel over fuel oil, or diesel over gasoline, as fuel specifications have certain flexibility, unlike the strict requirements for petrochemical products.
- The easiest-to-understand spread is the kerosene adjustment spread, which is the jet fuel price minus the diesel price. If the result is positive, jet fuel is tighter than diesel. This occurred in the early stages of the U.S.-Iran conflict in March. At present, this spread is negative as the tightness is in diesel, not jet fuel.
- This analysis is closely monitoring the diesel-gasoline spread: the spread between Singapore 10ppm diesel and Singapore 92 gasoline reached a peak of $60 per barrel in mid-September, but refineries still need to produce gasoline, so this high level cannot be sustained for long. Consequently, diesel then pulled up gasoline prices, while diesel itself retreated slightly.
- At the same time, attention is also paid to the fuel oil-diesel spread, namely the spread between Singapore 380 CST fuel oil and Singapore 10ppm diesel, which rebounded after reaching an extremely low level in mid-September. Marine fuel demand remains strong, so the diesel story is not the only factor.
- From a market perspective, cross-product spreads reflect refinery optimization and regional supply-demand mismatches. Ongoing attention is warranted on how diesel cracks, gasoline seasonality, and marine fuel demand guide the spread structure.
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