The oil market is showing spot premiums, signaling increased supply tightness.

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智通财经2026/09/28 10:36

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If you just caught up with the oil market this morning and saw that oil prices are both $100 and $107, you might be confused about which price is correct. The answer is, both are correct.
The simultaneous appearance of two significantly different prices in the market indicates that, after Trump rejected an Iranian proposal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, oil traders are becoming increasingly concerned about tightening supply.
The higher price corresponds to the November Brent crude futures contract, which is a way to obtain crude oil as soon as possible through futures contracts. These contracts will expire at the end of this month.
The lower price corresponds to the contract expiring in October and delivering in December.
Usually, the price difference between contracts for two consecutive months is very small, at most just a few dollars. However, when the oil market faces supply glut or shortage, the price gap can widen significantly, especially as the contract approaches expiration.
This time, the earlier November delivery contract is more than $7 per barrel higher than the December contract, signaling that the market is rushing to secure crude oil as soon as possible. In trader's jargon, this is called a spot premium.
The opposite situation is called a futures premium, which occurs during periods of oversupply and means that contracts nearing expiration are priced lower.
From a market perspective, a deepening spot premium reflects tight immediate supply. Going forward, attention should be paid to the progress of Hormuz negotiations and the speed at which inventories are reduced for guidance on the structure of the price spread.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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The oil market is showing spot premiums, signaling increased supply tightness.

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