Why Micron's 87% Gross Margin Is a Problem -- Barrons.com

By Adam Clark

Micron Technology is enjoying incredible margins amid the memory-chip boom. But the problem is any indication of a peak is taken as a sign to rush to the exit, and that looks to be holding the stock back.

Micron shares were down 1.5% at $1,049.46 in early trading Thursday after the company reported better-than-expected earnings late Wednesday.

Almost every number in Micron's report was great-revenue, profit, and free cash flow all soared, and the company has locked in a raft of new long-term supply agreements. The only real concern was guidance for its gross margin to drop from 87% in its fiscal fourth quarter to 86.25% in the current quarter.

It's hardly a crisis. The margin is still sky high; even Nvidia only manages 75% and a big manufacturer like Ford hovers at around 8%. Micron executives said on the earnings call that they expect the gross margin to head upward again after the fiscal first quarter. The dip was put down to a temporary effect from compensation for workers.

But after a nearly sixfold gain in the past 12 months, anything that even hints of a peak is cause for concern and Micron is a victim of its own success in that regard.

"Investors will likely scrutinize the softer gross margin guidance and limited updates on capital allocation, with further details deferred until CHIPS Act restrictions are lifted in December," wrote William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji in a research note.

But the bigger picture is still rosy for Micron. Most importantly, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told analysts the industry has no "line of sight" to when supply and demand for memory chips will be balanced again, with the company having already found buyers for 75% of its 2027 supply.

"Customers are now extending supply agreements into 2031 and we think these agreements will prove more durable than many investors fear because most are set in a way that would require pricing to go down well over 70% for customers to consider walking away," wrote UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri in a research note.

Arcuri reiterated his price target of $1,625 on the stock.

Barron's previously argued Micron could double in price, when it was trading around $1,100. So long as the memory-chip shortage continues, the company is still on track for gains.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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October 01, 2026 09:58 ET (13:58 GMT)