UPS Likely to Post In-Line Third-Quarter Earnings, UBS Says

04:32 PM EDT, 10/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- United Parcel Service (UPS) will likely post fiscal third-quarter earnings in line with Wall Street's expectations as the impact of a higher share count offsets fuel price tailwinds in its domestic operations, UBS Securities said Friday. The brokerage cut the logistics company's earnings per share estimate to $1.63 from $1.67 for the third quarter and to $2.70 from $2.72 for the fourth quarter. The Street is looking for $1.63 and $2.74, respectively, according to UBS. The brokerage increased UPS' outstanding diluted share estimates to 853 million for each of the third and fourth quarters, from 837 million and 835 million, respectively. UPS is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct. 27. Domestic volume likely fell 3.6% year on year in the third quarter, compared with a 3.3% drop in the June quarter, UBS analysts, including Thomas Wadewitz, said in a note to clients. "Fuel price volatility is likely a headwind in international and a tailwind in domestic with a roughly neutral impact overall," Wadewitz wrote. UBS rates the UPS stock at buy with a $124 price target. "We expect favorable mix and elevated fuel surcharge to provide an aid for US domestic revenue/piece in (the third and fourth quarters)," Wadewitz said. UPS' shares closed 0.9% down on Friday, and have fallen about 6.2% so far this year. The brokerage projects full-year EPS of $7.15, down from the previous forecast of $7.20 and representing a flat year-over-year performance. "Our 2027 (estimate) EPS remains unchanged at $8.25, reflecting stronger revenue and margin improvement across all segments," Wadewitz added. In June, rival FedEx (FDX) issued a weak full-year earnings outlook below Wall Street's estimates despite reporting an unexpected increase in bottom line for the fourth quarter through May. FedEx is due to report quarterly financials on Oct. 28.