Nvidia's long-term supply commitment rises to $279 billion, securing 37.3% of HBM supply
智通财经2026/10/06 03:26According to the latest estimates from Morgan Stanley, Nvidia has secured approximately 37.3% of the global high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply for 2027. Its long-term supply commitments have surged from $119 billion in the previous quarter to $279 billion (about 1.87 trillion RMB). Nvidia’s supply commitments are not evenly distributed. According to the financial report, around $92 billion will mature during the remainder of fiscal year 2027, $87 billion in fiscal 2028, and $88 billion in fiscal 2029. The cost per GB of HBM4 has jumped from $17–18 during the HBM3e era to $31–32, nearly doubling. Bernstein predicts that HBM4 pricing may further rise to $53 per GB in 2027, and UBS estimates that the average HBM price overall in 2027 will be about 79% higher than in 2026. It should be noted that the production capacity of the three major memory manufacturers has already been fully booked in advance. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated clearly during the October 1 earnings call that the majority of HBM supply in 2027 has already been secured via agreements, and there is currently no sign of a supply-demand balance being restored. Samsung also stated that customers have pre-ordered 2027 demand in advance, and the supply gap is expected to further widen compared to 2026.
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