Data Brief - Major Brokerages' Predictions for the S&P 500 Index in 2026

Additional remarks by Trump were included in paragraphs 8 and 9. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) stated that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US jumped by 19 basis points to 7.49%. The Federal Reserve signaled that it may raise interest rates one more time this year, though markets expect no action in October. Overall mortgage application volume fell by 4.2% week-on-week, reaching its lowest level since February 2025. According to Ann Saphir at Reuters on October 7, last week, the most common US home loan interest rate surged to its highest level in nearly three years. This further increased the burden on homebuyers, just four weeks before the election that will determine whether the Republican Party under President Donald Trump will maintain control of Congress. The MBA reported on Wednesday that during the week ending October 2, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 19 basis points to 7.49%, the highest level since November 2023. Mortgage rates are closely correlated with US 10-year Treasury yields. Earlier this week, those yields hit a 24-year high, driven by concerns about inflation due to soaring oil prices and data showing strong US economic growth. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday found that the cost of living is the top issue for Americans when deciding how to vote on November 3. This is one reason Trump’s approval rating has dropped to an all-time low of 32%. Since the US-Israel coalition’s airstrikes against Iran in late February, home loan rates have risen by about 1.4 percentage points, a move echoing the similar increase in the 10-year Treasury yield, which surpassed 5.3% on Monday. Inflation is also climbing; using the Fed’s 2% target as a benchmark, inflation reached 3.4% in August. Federal Reserve policymakers have indicated that, after raising rates in September, they expect to hike again by year-end, although markets currently expect no action at the policy meeting in late October. When asked about mortgage rates on Wednesday, Trump said Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was “great”, but added that other members “seem to want the economy to underperform, because I think rates should be going down”. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, present in the Oval Office with Trump at the time, blamed inflation and high mortgage rates on temporary shocks caused by rising oil prices. “So, once we get through this Iran conflict and the energy market is well supplied, we will move towards the Fed’s targets, and both mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield will come down,” Bessent said. The MBA reported Wednesday that overall mortgage applications last week dropped 4.2% from the previous week, with refinancing applications falling sharply. Total application volume is now at its lowest since February 2025 and has declined nearly 50% since January. “At current rate levels, there is almost no incentive for homeowners to refinance, and the surge in borrowing costs has caused many potential borrowers to exit the homebuying market,” said MBA Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan. (For convenience to non-native English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. Due to possible errors in automated translation or failure to capture necessary context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of these translations, which are provided solely for reader convenience. Reuters assumes no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of automated translation features.)

October 7 — Concern over increased scrutiny by US regulators on dealer networks and repair practices led to a decline in agricultural machinery manufacturers' stock prices. The Federal Trade Commission and the US Department of Agriculture are seeking public comments on whether agricultural equipment manufacturers and dealers are engaging in anti-competitive practices or restricting repair channels. The probe also focuses on limitations in dealer networks and industry consolidation, areas that could prompt wider regulatory examination of the agricultural equipment sector. Caterpillar (CAT.N) shares fell 6% to $811.44, making it one of the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 index. By midday trading, CNH Industrial CNH.N was down 6% to $12.47, Deere & Company DE.N fell 3.5% to $658.90, and AGCO AGCO.N dropped 6.3% to $108.91. Including these daily changes, the S&P 1500 Agricultural & Farm Machinery Index .SPCOMAGFM has risen 42.6% so far this year. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters has automated translations of its reports into several other languages. Due to the possibility of inaccuracies or a lack of full context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of the automated translations and provides them only for reader convenience. Reuters accepts no responsibility for any damage or loss arising from the use of automated translation features.)