Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1131 GMT - KPMG continues to expect one performative interest rate increase from the Bank of Canada, and now sees that coming in December. Markets are pricing in four increases by the end of 2027, which KPMG doesn't reckon is sensible. A single increase is about financial dominance and the need to demonstrate central bank credibility, rather than any worry about the current fundamentals, KPMG argues. The Bank of Canada is likely to send a strong signal at the October meeting, act in December, then hold tight for the foreseeable future, it says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1120 GMT - Tokenization, or the ability to convert real-world assets into digital tokens, will become the new normal as private companies and politicians push to bring the technology into the mainstream, Union Investment's head of tokenization and digital assets Christoph Hock says. "Politicians are driving the shift into a redefinition of financial market infrastructure," Hock says at the Digital Assets week conference in London. Central bank interest in developing their own tokenization capabilities is encouraging, and adds to progress from private companies in bringing the technology into the mainstream. "The ingredients are all there" for tokenization adoption to significantly increase, Hock says. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

1109 GMT - CGI's declining job postings could suggest pressure on near-term organic growth, according to a research note by RBC. Analyst Paul Treiber says that CGI's job postings declined 25% year-over-year, deteriorating of a decline of 8% last quarter, which has "underperformed the broader IT services market, where postings rose 14% year-on-year." The data suggest that CGI organic growth may fall short of his estimates, which was for a decline of 0.2%. Treiber adds that the job data also suggest a softer near-term demand environment, further pointing to CGI's bookings last quarter which were also below expectations. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1102 GMT - India's central bank is likely to raise its policy repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50% on Wednesday, according to nine out of 10 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Rising energy costs and a sharp pickup in food prices are expected to push CPI inflation back above the Reserve Bank of India's target range, and it'll likely raise rates to prevent inflation expectations from de-anchoring, ING economists write in a note. UOB economist Jester Koh noted from the MPC meetings in August that several members said that while rate hikes on the horizon, they are adopting a wait-and-see approach first. Koh expects the RBI to be on pause before delivering two back-to-back 25bps rate hikes. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

1101 GMT - The upcoming minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting will provide the next major test for the dollar, Tapaas chief executive Jonathan Squires says in a note. With markets pricing little chance of policy tightening for the October 28 decision, evidence of broad support for further interest-rate hikes could trigger a repricing and boost the dollar, he says. "Conversely, signs of disagreement over the timing or need for additional tightening could weaken the broader multi-hike path and weigh on the currency." The Fed minutes will be released on Wednesday. The DXY falls 0.2% to 102.013 after hitting a near 18-month high of 102.535 Monday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1051 GMT - The dollar eases as the euro recovers after French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen promised to reduce the public deficit. Le Pen, who is ahead in opinion polls for next year's elections, unveiled detailed plans of a 140 billion euro package of spending cuts and tax rises. French yields fall 11 basis points to 4.761%, according to Tradeweb. The euro rises 0.2% to $1.1244 after reaching a 16-month low of $1.1160 Monday, LSEG data show. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 102.004 after hitting a near 18-month high of 102.535 Monday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0939 GMT - For nearly 15 years, governments, companies and investors have lived in a world where money seemed almost endlessly available and this era is coming to an end, Carmignac Chairman and CIO Edouard Carmignac says in a note. "Money has a price once again, and with it comes a discipline we may have been too quick to forget: the discipline of choice." This shift is taking place at a time when capital needs have never been greater. The U.S. must simultaneously finance a staggering public debt and a technological revolution with an extraordinary appetite for investment. Meanwhile, Europe "needs to finance its defense, its energy independence and its infrastructure, and find the capital to plug its technological gap." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0920 GMT - Julius Baer expects the Federal Reserve to deliver one final rate hike in December, followed by an extended pause, says chief economist David Kohl. The U.S. labor market cooled slightly in September, with overall job growth slowing and fewer than 50% of industries reporting job gains, among other indicators. Julius Baer now sees the December FOMC meeting as the most likely opportunity for the next 25bp rate hike. Financial conditions have tightened since the last FOMC meeting far more because of rising long-term yields and U.S. dollar appreciation than the increase in short-term rates, while the offset from higher equity markets has moderated, he says. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0918 GMT - The Turkish lira should remain under sustained depreciation pressure as the country's latest inflation data could encourage the central bank to cut interest rates on October 22, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. Data on Monday showed annual inflation eased to 29.7% in September from 31.5% in August which creates "the perfect background for Turkey's central bank to cut rates by 100 basis points later this month," he says. While interventions to prop up the lira could limit the extent of the currency's falls, further losses look likely, he says. The dollar rises 0.1% to 49.1752 lira after earlier reaching a record high of 49.1821, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)By Emese Bartha U.S. Treasury yields turned lower in European trade while eurozone government bond yields fell sharply as investors pondered whether the recent selloff had gone too far and now offered attractive levels to start buying again.

Reduced market pricing of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike later this month following Friday's weak employment data has helped calm nerves. Investors priced a 22% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate increase on Oct. 28, sharply down from as high as 70% at the start of last week, although at least three rate hikes are priced over the coming year, LSEG data showed.

French government bonds recovered after a sharp selloff due to recent budget concerns that took yields and their spreads against German peers to multiyear highs.

"Markets have had another volatile session over the last 24 hours, as investors grappled with European contagion risk and a fresh Treasury selloff," Deutsche Bank strategists said. "On the bright side, yesterday brought some initial signs that the pressure on France was stabilizing, with a clear outperformance in French debt."

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 5.280%, having risen to 5.349% on Monday, the highest since 2002, according to Tradeweb. The 10-year German Bund yield declined 5.1 basis points to 3.445%. French and Italian bonds rallied, with the 10-year French OAT yield sliding 12 basis points to 4.758% and the Italian BTP yield declining 13 basis points to 4.543%.

The 10-year French OAT-Bund yield spread narrowed to 131 basis points, having widened to an intraday high of almost 159 basis points on Friday.

That said, government bond yields globally remain elevated.

Government spending, debt sustainability and inflation remain key concerns, largely due to steep rises in energy prices as a result of the U.S.-Iran war.

Regarding France, RBC Capital Markets analysts said that the passing of the 2027 budget doesn't necessarily secure fiscal sustainability.

"Beyond next year, France would need to deliver a similar pace of consolidation for four further years to achieve a 3% budget deficit by 2030--a pace no French government has sustained in the modern era," they said in a note.

This week sees less eurozone government bond supply, with no French auctions due.

The U.S. Treasury's $58 billion three-year auction on Tuesday is expected to be absorbed well.

"Given a more supportive broader macro and technical backdrop, we think [Tuesday's] auction will be digested smoothly," J.P. Morgan strategists wrote in a note.

In Europe, Austria and Germany will hold bond auctions on Tuesday, with the former reopening 2032- and 2062-dated bonds and the latter launching new December 2028-dated treasury notes, or Schatz. Write to Emese Bartha at emese.bartha@wsj.com

0857 GMT - The U.K's Debt Management Office is due to sell 1.25 billion pounds in September 2035-dated indexed-linked gilts at an auction at 0900 GMT which should see good demand, RBC Capital Markets' strategists say in a note. It seems likely that Tuesday's tap of this bond will be the last, which should be "supportive of strong demand," particularly as it follows strong results at the prior two taps of the bond, they say. In addition, inflation-linked bonds are attractive more broadly given that the energy prices risk rising further due to recent geopolitical developments and the difficulties facing the U.S. and Iran in reaching a peace deal, the strategists say. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

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October 06, 2026 07:31 ET (11:31 GMT)