US Treasury Outlook: 10-Year and 30-Year Auction Yields May Hit 26-Year Highs

智通财经2026/10/06 12:07

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(1) According to some institutional views, the U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury auction yields are now at their highest levels in 26 years, which could represent a peak for 2026 or even 2027. (2) In the September auctions, foreign demand hit a record, with yields about 40 to 50 basis points lower than today; now, absolute yields are even higher. (3) Tactically, this institution prefers to go long around a 5.29% 10-year yield, and to add to positions on weakness to build a strategic long. (4) U.S. Treasury yields moved lower, the 10-year falling nearly 5 basis points, as changes in the Middle East have weakened the geopolitical premium in crude oil. (5) Saudi Arabia has directly taken action against armed groups in Yemen, and with oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz back to near pre-conflict levels, the two main pillars propping up oil's risk premium have weakened. (6) If oil breaks and closes below the $87.50/barrel trendline, further technical weakness could be confirmed, with $86.40 and $85.30 areas to watch on the downside. (7) Refined oil products, particularly diesel, remain unpredictable; normalizing crude flows have not yet translated through to refined products, and there could be one final spike in prices. (8) A potential tropical system near the Gulf Coast poses a short-term tail risk, with Louisiana having around 3 million barrels/day of refining capacity. (9) If crude oil falls sharply, this could pave the way for a reversal and rise in U.S. Treasuries, with the institution expecting the 10-year yield to move toward 4.85%. (10) As the U.S. midterm elections approach, both the U.S. and Europe have increasing political motivation to boost energy supplies and push for Middle East agreements, while high interest rates continue to weigh on housing, autos, and corporate credit. (11) Once crude oil turns downward, inflation premiums in U.S. Treasuries could quickly fade, and the Federal Reserve's narrative may shift from expecting two to four more rate hikes to "just one more and done." (12) As a result, this week’s 10-year and 30-year auctions are more of an opportunity than a supply threat; if oil declines, the current historic auction yields could quickly become the cycle peak.

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