AI Agents Ignite CPU Demand! Mizuho Estimates Market Size to Reach $209 Billion by 2030, Raises Target Prices for AMD (AMD.US), Intel (INTC.US), etc.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Mizuho stated that as application scenarios for AI agents rapidly increase, the demand for server CPUs is expected to see significant growth, which will further drive demand for DRAM, NAND, and server equipment. Based on the latest forecasts for AI agent infrastructure requirements, Mizuho has raised the target prices for AMD (AMD.US), Intel (INTC.US), Dell (DELL.US), SanDisk (SNDK.US), and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US), while reiterating its bullish outlook on Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Micron Technology (MU.US).

Mizuho analysts led by Vijay Rakesh estimate that by 2030, the AI agent-dedicated CPU market will reach approximately $80 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as high as 123% over the next four years; the head node CPU market, which is used to coordinate computing tasks, is expected to reach $68 billion, with a CAGR of about 61%; meanwhile, the traditional CPU market is expected to reach $60 billion, but with a CAGR of only about 2%.

Overall, Mizuho expects the global server CPU total addressable market (TAM) to grow to about $209 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 32% over the next four years. This forecast is even lower than AMD's long-term market size target of over $220 billion.

AI agents will become the most important growth driver within this segment. Mizuho forecasts that the proportion of CPU demand related to AI agents as a share of total server CPU demand will rapidly rise from the current level of around 4% to about 30% by 2030. At the same time, AI agents could eventually contribute 22% to 30% of shipment demand in the markets for CPUs, DRAM, and NAND, respectively.

Mizuho pointed out that products like Meta’s (META.US) recently launched personal AI agent Muse, which has been well received in the market, as well as the release of Dots by OpenAI, both indicate that AI agents are being more deeply integrated into daily workflows. As AI agents continue to perform tasks, call models, and coordinate different computing resources, their proliferation is expected to significantly increase server-side CPU and storage demand.

In the short term, Mizuho believes four leading CPUs are positioned to become major beneficiaries of AI agent workloads, including AGI CPU from Arm (ARM.US), Venice from AMD, Vera from Nvidia, and Diamond Rapids from Intel.

With regard to competitive dynamics in the server CPU space, Mizuho expects revenue from AMD and Intel to steadily increase. AMD’s server CPU revenue is projected to grow from approximately $12 billion in 2025 to $44 billion in 2028, while Intel’s is expected to grow from $17 billion to $41 billion.

In contrast, Nvidia may experience a much steeper growth curve. Mizuho anticipates its server CPU revenue will skyrocket from around $7 billion in 2025 to $60 billion in 2028, potentially surpassing competitors in 2027. As Vera takes the market by storm, Nvidia is expected to expand its market share with independent Vera racks and CPU products paired with GPU compute nodes. Mizuho maintains an “Outperform” rating on Nvidia and a target price of $325.

Server vendors are also expected to share in the infrastructure investment dividends driven by AI agents. Mizuho predicts that Dell’s pure CPU server revenue may grow from about $19 billion in 2025 to $40 billion in 2028, while Super Micro Computer’s relevant revenue could increase from $7 billion to $17 billion, mainly driven by AI agent orchestration demand and traditional enterprise server deployments.

Based on this demand outlook, Mizuho has raised AMD’s target price from $580 to $705, Dell’s from $600 to $650, Intel’s from $92 to $114, SanDisk’s from $1,875 to $2,050, and Super Micro Computer’s from $35 to $43. Except for a “Neutral” rating on Super Micro Computer, Mizuho maintains an “Outperform” rating for all other aforementioned companies.

Storage chips are also seen by Mizuho as a key beneficiary of the expansion in AI agent demand. As AI agents drive growth in both DRAM and NAND demand, Mizuho reiterates its “Outperform” rating on Micron Technology, along with a target price of $1,400.