The New Zealand Dollar edges off its low as the US Dollar slips

Traders give the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) about a 58% chance of raising its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3% on October 28, down from about 80% in late September, and NZD/USD has fallen with those odds. The pair trades just above 0.5600, and Tuesday's high was its first above the session before since September 28.

The RBNZ's own September forecast put the OCR at an average of 2.81% for the December quarter. That figure only works with no move on October 28 and a hike in December, which is the path traders have been drifting back toward.

The weaker Kiwi is adding to the inflation the RBNZ wants to stop

BNZ estimates the Kiwi's fall adds about 0.3 percentage points to its inflation forecast on top of dearer fuel, and the currency's trade-weighted index is at a 15-year low. Dearer imports are the case for hiking sooner, and the bank now expects an October move with the OCR reaching 3.75% in time. RBNZ Governor Breman said in September that the RBNZ isn't on a preset course, and since then the exchange rate has been setting one.

New Zealand's one event on the calendar has no time attached

Governor Breman speaks on Thursday, and no time has been published for the only New Zealand event through Friday. In May she cast the deciding vote for a hold when the committee split 3-3, so any lean she shows on October carries extra weight in a close call.

Fed minutes are due on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, jobless claims on Thursday at 12:30 GMT are forecast at 200K from 197K, and Friday brings the University of Michigan (UoM) sentiment survey at 14:00 GMT. A 3K swing in claims is unlikely to move the Kiwi as far as one sentence from Governor Breman could.

Kiwi levels near the November 2025 low

Resistance: Tuesday's bounce stopped short of 0.5650, which hasn't traded since October 1. 0.5700 is next, the level that capped the late-September bounces.

Support: Monday's low, just under 0.5600, matched the November 2025 low. 0.5550 is next, then 0.5500.

Bias: The setup stays short below 0.5650 on a closing basis, with 0.5550 the first objective and 0.5500 the second. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) has been below 20 since mid-September and is near 10, so a bounce toward 0.5650 fits the call. A daily close above 0.5700 ends it.

NZD/USD daily chart