United States Dollar Index retakes 102.00 as bulls eye YTD peak ahead of FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday, reversing a part of the previous day's corrective slide and retaking the 102.00 mark in the last hour. The index remains well within striking distance of its highest level since April 2025, touched on Monday, ahead of the release of FOMC meeting Minutes.

Traders will look for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path amid diminishing odds for an October rate hike. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the DXY. Nevertheless, traders are still pricing in around an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the year-end. Adding to this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and a fresh leg up in US bond yields help revive demand for the safe-haven Greenback.

In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Saudi-backed forces of Yemen's internationally recognized government claimed control over strategic points along the Red Sea coast, including areas around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The Iran-backed Houthi group retaliated by attacking key targets in Saudi Arabia, including an Aramco refinery in Riyadh. Moreover, Iran has ramped up its pace of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, pushing oil prices away from a one-month low.

Meanwhile, US bond yields remain close to multi-year highs on the back of the recent ferocious global rout in the fixed income market. This is seen as another factor supporting the DXY and backing the case for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past month or so. Hence, any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited, warranting caution before confirming that the index has topped out in the near term.

DXY daily chart

Technical Analysis

The DXY maintains a near-term bullish tone above the 101.75-101.65 resistance breakpoint, which helped limit the overnight corrective slide. Moreover, momentum conditions reinforce this constructive tone, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71.45, suggesting strong buying pressure. It also indicates overbought territory and warns that the rally could be prone to a pause or shallow corrective pullback in the short term.