EUR/CAD falls for three consecutive days: Strong German output still cannot offset oil prices supporting CAD

智通财经2026/10/07 09:17

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The euro has fallen against the Canadian dollar for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around 1.5920 during Wednesday’s European session. Despite Germany’s stronger-than-expected industrial performance, the euro remains under pressure, causing the EUR/CAD pair to continue its decline. Official data show that German industrial output surged by 2% month-on-month in September, far exceeding the market’s forecast of 0.5% and reversing August’s 1.2% decline. Year-on-year, industrial output rose by 2.3%, compared to a previous decrease of 1.6%. However, these strong economic figures were overshadowed by prevailing risk-averse sentiment, and the euro remained pressured. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed Brent crude prices back above 100 dollars per barrel, sparking concerns over energy-driven inflation and a slowdown in eurozone economic growth. Rising oil prices provided solid support for the Canadian dollar, which is highly correlated with commodity prices, further weighing on the euro. As long as global energy supply risks continue to drive up oil prices, the strength of the Canadian dollar may continue to drag down the EUR/CAD exchange rate.

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```htmlThe euro has declined against the Canadian dollar for the third consecutive trading day, hovering around 1.5920 during Wednesday's European trading session. Despite Germany's better-than-expected industrial performance, the euro still faces pressure, causing it to continue its downward trend against the Canadian dollar. Official data shows that Germany's industrial output rose sharply by 2% month-on-month in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 0.5%, and reversing August's 1.2% decline. On an annual basis, industrial output grew by 2.3%, compared to a previous decrease of 1.6%. However, this strong economic data has been overshadowed by overall risk-aversion sentiment, leaving the euro under pressure. The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude oil prices back above $100 per barrel, triggering concerns about energy-driven inflation and slowing economic growth in the eurozone. The rise in crude oil prices has provided strong support for the Canadian dollar, which is highly correlated with commodity prices, while putting the euro under additional pressure. As long as global energy supply risks continue to drive oil prices higher, the strength of the Canadian dollar may continue to drag down the euro against the Canadian dollar.```

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According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through October is 80.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 19.4%. By December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 21.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 64.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 14.2%.

智通财经•2026/10/07 22:26