Reuters survey: 10-year US Treasury yield expected to fall to 5% by year-end

智通财经2026/10/07 12:26

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A Reuters survey indicates that fixed income strategists expect U.S. Treasury yields to decline in the coming months. Despite the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recording its largest quarterly increase since 1994, strategists continue to uphold a long-standing bearish yield outlook. However, after consistently misjudging yield trends over the past nine months, confidence in a downward move is waning. Some strategists believe that financial markets have overly priced in a series of Fed rate hikes, and actual increases may ultimately fall short of market expectations. Meanwhile, concerns over inflation triggered by the U.S. and Israel's conflict with Iran, as well as rising policy rates from major global central banks, have recently pushed government borrowing costs in several developed economies to multi-decade highs. Tech giants have been heavily borrowing to build AI infrastructure, and increased issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds has also added to yield pressures. According to a Reuters poll conducted with nearly 60 strategists from October 5 to 7, the median forecast sees the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 5.00% by year-end, 4.90% in six months, and 4.75% in a year.

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A Reuters survey shows that fixed income strategists expect U.S. Treasury yields to decline in the coming months. Although the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recorded its largest quarterly increase since 1994, strategists are sticking to their long-held bearish yield outlook. However, after continuously misjudging yield trends for the past nine months, the market's confidence in a downward move for yields is weakening. Some strategists believe that financial markets have already priced in excessive Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, and the eventual rate hike may end up being lower than the market anticipates. Meanwhile, concerns over inflation triggered by the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran, as well as rising policy rates from major global central banks, have recently pushed government financing costs in multiple developed economies to multi-decade highs. Tech giants are heavily issuing debt for AI infrastructure construction, and the increase in U.S. Treasury issuance is further intensifying upward pressure on yields. A Reuters survey conducted among nearly 60 strategists between October 5 and 7 shows that the median forecast expects the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to fall to 5.00% by the end of the year, 4.90% in six months, and 4.75% in one year.

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Reuters survey: 10-year US Treasury yield expected to fall to 5% by year-end

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