ABN AMRO: Limited risk of French bond market spreading more broadly to Europe

智通财经2026/10/07 12:35

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(1) Larissa de Barros Fritz, Senior Rates Strategist at ABN AMRO, believes that concerns about wider contagion in Europe sparked by the heavy sell-off of French government bonds are exaggerated. In a report released on Wednesday, she wrote that unlike previous periods of severe sovereign debt stress in the eurozone, there are currently no signs of broader financial risk transmission. (2) The credit default swap (CDS) spread, which measures the cost of protecting against default on French and German sovereign debt, has only "slightly" increased. This level is well below those seen during previous crises and also much lower than the CDS spread for Italy during the surge in concerns over Italy potentially leaving the eurozone in 2018. (3) Fritz believes that while French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen might have conflicts with the EU regarding France's contributions to the EU budget, she still states that the risks of fragmentation within the eurozone and of debts being redenominated into other currencies are relatively low. (4) She also wrote that the France-Germany bond yield spread is not expected to reach the levels above 200 basis points witnessed during previous periods of stress in the Italian debt market.

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