US natural gas prices rise to two-week highs as hurricanes disrupt supply

智通财经2026/10/08 14:08

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(1) U.S. natural gas futures rose by about 2% on Thursday, hitting a two-week high as energy companies reduced pipeline deliveries in the Gulf of Mexico and this week's demand forecasts were revised upward. (2) The front-month natural gas contract for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by 7.4 cents, or roughly 2.3%, to $3.277 per million British thermal units, set to post the highest close since September 24 for a second consecutive day. (3) This also marks the fifth straight day of gains for the front-month contract, the first such streak since May, with a cumulative increase of around 10%. (4) The market is also awaiting the Federal inventory report, with analysts expecting energy companies to have injected about 7.9 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ending October 2. (5) This forecast is below the five-year average of around 9.6 billion cubic feet for the same period and slightly above last year’s 7.7 billion cubic feet. (6) The U.S. National Hurricane Center expects Hurricane Isaias to make landfall late Friday near the border of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. (7) While the storm could boost gas prices by cutting Gulf production, analysts point out that such weather events are more likely to lower prices and demand by forcing closures of LNG export facilities and causing power outages. (8) About 40% of U.S. electricity is generated by gas-fired power plants, but most natural gas production comes from shale formations away from the Gulf; in 2025, federal offshore Gulf production will account for only about 2% of total nationwide marketed output. (9) Institutional data shows that average daily output in the Lower 48 states so far in October dropped to about 111.2 billion cubic feet, below the record 113.3 billion cubic feet per day seen in August and September. (10) Output is expected to fall further on Thursday to a four-month low of around 108.5 billion cubic feet per day, mainly due to Isaias-related offshore shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico. (11) Institutional forecasts indicate U.S. nationwide average demand, including exports, will fall from 106.6 billion cubic feet per day this week to 104.0 billion cubic feet per day next week in the Lower 48 states. (12) So far in October, average gas flow to the U.S. nine major LNG export facilities dropped to 16.9 billion cubic feet per day, down from 17.9 billion in September and a record 18.8 billion in April.

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