This Week’s Key Macro Outlook for U.S. Stocks (October 12–October 16)

October 12 (Monday)

1. IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings open in Bangkok, running through October 18. Finance ministers and central bank officials will discuss the global economy, inflation, and financial stability.
2. 14:00: EU foreign ministers meet in Luxembourg to discuss the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East situation, and the security implications of EU enlargement.
3. U.S. stock markets and CME Treasury futures trade normally; the cash bond market is closed for the full day.

October 13 (Tuesday)

1. 15:45: Fed Governor Waller speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum; Cleveland Fed President Hammack also speaks the same day.
2. 20:15: ADP weekly employment change for the week ending September 26 is released; 22:00: September existing home sales (annualized) are released.
3. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo report Q3 earnings; UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson, and Domino’s Pizza release results before the market open.
4. 21:00: Apple holds a smart home product launch event in New York; OPEC publishes its monthly oil market report.

October 14 (Wednesday)

1. ★★★★★ 20:30 Beijing time: U.S. September CPI and core CPI are released — a key variable for October and December rate hike expectations. Current market pricing shows roughly 19% probability of a hike in October and full pricing for December.
2. 4:00: Boston Fed President Collins speaks; 17:40: Fed Governor Bowman speaks; IEA publishes its monthly oil market report.
3. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and ASML report Q3 earnings.
4. Anthropic may hold a pre-IPO investor day event.

October 15 (Thursday)

1. 2:00 Beijing time: Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions.
2. 20:30: Weekly initial jobless claims (week ending October 10), September retail sales, September PPI and core PPI, and New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes are released; 22:00: August business inventories month-over-month are released.
3. TSMC reports Q3 earnings; Alcoa releases results after the market close.
4. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting takes place; Tesla holds a Roadster event.

October 16 (Friday)

1. 11:30: Fed Chair Warsh attends the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok and holds a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva. Focus will be on his interpretation of CPI, PPI, and retail sales, as well as any comments on a potential December rate hike.
2. 4:30: Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks; 20:30: September import price index month-over-month is released; 21:15: September industrial production month-over-month is released.
3. Apple iPhone Duo pre-sales begin.

This week’s core themes for U.S. stocks center on a dense schedule of Fed officials speaking ahead of the blackout period and Warsh’s IMF remarks, the release of U.S. September CPI/PPI/retail sales, and the start of Q3 earnings from major Wall Street banks plus ASML and TSMC (FactSet estimates S&P 500 Q3 earnings growth of about 29.5% year-over-year and revenue growth of about 12.3%). Market volatility is expected to increase.