Eli Lilly Likely to Raise Revenue Outlook Amid Strong Diabetes, Weight-Loss Drug Sales, RBC Says

09:18 AM EDT, 10/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Eli Lilly (LLY) is likely to raise its full-year revenue outlook as third-quarter sales momentum in its diabetes and weight-loss drugs is expected to offset pricing pressures from the Medicare Bridge program, RBC Capital Markets said in a client note Monday. The brokerage expects the drugmaker to raise its topline guidance for the year by about $2 billion when it reports third-quarter results, in line with the $2 billion and $2.5 billion hikes it made in the first and second quarters, respectively. In August, the company said it expected revenue to be in the $85 billion to $87 billion range, while the current FactSet consensus is $88.7 billion. Eli Lilly is expected to report its third-quarter results on Oct. 29. RBC forecasts the company's Mounjaro diabetes treatment and weight-loss drug Zepbound to record third-quarter sales of $10.46 billion and $5.21 billion, respectively, both above consensus estimates. In July, Eli Lilly started offering its Foundayo and Zepbound weight management medicines to eligible Medicare Part D patients for $50 a month under the Medicare glucagon-like peptide-1, or GLP-1, Bridge program through Dec. 31, 2027. The program provides temporary coverage for certain GLP-1 medicines for eligible patients with Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage. It is increasing uptake and having a "noticeable impact" on the trajectory of Foundayo, which is "slowly" closing the gap with Novo Nordisk's (NVO) oral Wegovy drug, according to RBC. However, the program has also introduced a modest price headwind for Zepbound, the brokerage added. "In addition to the Bridge program, price concessions in exchange for Foundayo access and CVS formulary reinstatement are driving the pricing headwinds for Zepbound in the quarter," RBC analyst Trung Huynh wrote in the note. "However, we expect the volume for pricing tradeoff to deliver a beat." RBC has an outperform rating on the company's stock with a price target of $1,500. Healthcare conglomerate Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is scheduled to post its earnings on Tuesday, while Merck (MRK) posts results later in October. Novo Nordisk and Pfizer (PFE) are expected to release their financials next month.