Iran Claims US Military Forces Significantly Withdrew at Sea; Six Ships Attacked in Hormuz in One Day; Houthi Forces Declare Saudi Aramco Oil Facilities as "Legitimate Targets"

The conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, raising the risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while threats from the Red Sea region have begun to extend towards Saudi energy facilities. Iran claims that US naval forces have retreated significantly from its maritime borders, while at the same time, it continues to strike vessels it identifies as “violating” its regulations. Media estimates suggest that, over the past two weeks, a total of 24 ships in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters have been attacked—6 of them on just one day last Sunday, marking the most severe attacks since the outbreak of hostilities.

According to Iranian media reports on Tuesday, the 13th local time, the Iranian Navy stated that a “violating” oil tanker, which had switched off its vessel tracking system and attempted to sail through the eastern waters of the Strait of Hormuz, was damaged and caught fire on that day. The Iranian side confirmed the ship’s identity but disclosed no further details. Previously, according to Xinhua News Agency citing an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Monday, Iran is reviewing the US proposal for reopening the strait, but the conditions for reopening remain unchanged.

Another risk line comes from the Red Sea and its surroundings. According to Global Times, on the 13th, Houthi forces declared that Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities are “legitimate targets,” warning staff and residents near these sites to evacuate. This means that regional energy risks now originate not only from the critical shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz but may also extend further to Saudi Arabia’s oil production, refining, and export infrastructure.

US Aircraft Carrier Rotation Leaves Only the USS George Washington Deployed in the Middle East

According to CCTV News, Iranian Navy Deputy Commander Faramarz Baimani stated on the 12th that US naval forces have significantly withdrawn, distancing themselves from Iran’s maritime boundaries. He said that all US Navy vessels, destroyers, and aircraft carriers had pulled back, and claimed that the Iranian Navy and other forces are developing new weapon systems to target adversaries’ weaknesses, with some systems already produced and ready for deployment.

Baimani further warned that, should the US “misjudge” the situation again, Iranian forces would respond and force a further US retreat from Iranian waters. He also claimed that, due to the conflict with Iran, US warships are unable to enter the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, which he called a “ghost town.” These assertions reflect statements from the Iranian military and cannot independently confirm the actual scale or changes in US naval deployment.

The US military has indeed recently rotated its aircraft carriers. CCTV News reported that the USS Abraham Lincoln returned to its home port of San Diego, California on October 8, while the USS George H.W. Bush, previously deployed in the Middle East, has also withdrawn. At present, the only US carrier strike group conducting operations against Iran in the Middle East is the USS George Washington. The newly dispatched USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group set off from the US on September 27 and is not expected to enter Middle Eastern waters until late October at the earliest.

This change in deployment coincides with Iran's statements about the US naval withdrawal, but carrier rotation in itself does not necessarily mean an overall reduction in US military pressure. The US’s actual operational capability in the Middle East still depends on other vessels, land-based air power, base support, and long-range strike capabilities.

24 Ships Attacked in Two Weeks: Strait of Hormuz Faces Worst Disruption Since Start of Conflict

According to the Financial Times, in the two weeks up to October 11, a total of 24 ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, surpassing the previous high of 13 attacks in two weeks in early March. On October 11 alone, 6 vessels were targeted, including oil product tankers, crude oil tankers, and an Indian container ship.

This round of attacks has had a clear impact on actual transportation. The Financial Times, citing relevant data, indicates that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz fell from a September average of 15.5 million barrels per day to just 2.9 million barrels on October 11—an 81.3% plunge from the September daily average. India has also expressed concern over its injured seafarers and two missing crew members.

Previously, despite ongoing regional conflict, oil tanker shipping had shown signs of recovery. However, the recent surge in attacks is discouraging shipping companies from entering the Gulf. Even with the prospect of high freight rates, risks such as ship attacks, casualties, rising insurance costs, and voyage delays may make some trips less attractive.

For the crude oil market, the key variable is not just whether the strait is entirely closed, but also how many ships are willing to enter these waters, whether tankers can continue loading and transferring oil, and if export volumes can remain high. If shipping risks continue to escalate, supply recovery could face new obstacles.

Iran Reviews US Views, But Conditions for Reopening Strait Remain Unchanged

As shipping risks rise, diplomatic communication between Iran and the US has not ceased. According to Xinhua News Agency on the 13th, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated on October 12 that Iran is reviewing the latest US comments regarding Iran’s position, and once review is complete, will immediately convey its view to mediators. He emphasized that Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain unchanged.

Previously, Iran presented proposals—via mediators—on reopening the strait and stopping hostilities. Spokesperson Baghaei reiterated on the 12th that Iran is still considering the US response and, after evaluation, will reply through intermediaries. Reuters reports that differences remain on the negotiation agenda: the US wants to discuss Iran’s nuclear issue as soon as possible, while Iran insists on first addressing strait security and related conditions.

This means that diplomatic engagement has yet to translate into any tangible improvement in shipping security. As long as the parties remain divided on ceasefire arrangements, maritime blockades, and conditions for reopening the strait, shipowners are unlikely to see a lower risk just because negotiations are ongoing.

Houthi Forces Target Saudi Aramco, Extending Energy Infrastructure Risks to the Red Sea

Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, energy risks are also rising from the direction of the Red Sea.

Global Times reported that on the 13th, a spokesperson for the Houthi forces identified Saudi Aramco’s facilities as “legitimate targets,” and warned employees and residents near Saudi oil facilities to stay away from these locations.

According to Turkey's Anadolu Agency, the Houthis also specifically mentioned Aramco’s headquarters in Dammam, the Riyadh refining facility, and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, warning that if Saudi Arabia continues strikes on the Yemeni capital Sanaa, these locations could be subject to retaliation. For now, this threat does not mean these facilities have already been attacked, but it does direct potential risk at Saudi oil enterprises and critical infrastructure.

This shift is significant: while the Hormuz crisis first hit crude and refined oil shipping routes, threats against Aramco’s facilities could push risks further upstream to the production, refining, and export links. If these threats turn into actual attacks, the market would face not only vessel rerouting, rising insurance premiums, and shipping delays, but also potential damage to production facilities and reduced supply capacity.

Against a backdrop of ongoing Iranian attacks on ships, adjustments in US carrier deployment, and lingering divisions in diplomatic negotiations, the Red Sea threat has further increased uncertainty over Middle East energy supplies. For the international oil market, the combination of risks to shipping lanes and production facilities means even a gradual resumption of transport may still leave regional supply vulnerable to repeated shocks.