Flight demonstrations struggle to break the Tesla (TSLA.US) market value curse

According to Woofun AI, Elon Musk plans to use SpaceX (SPCX.US) rocket technology to achieve hovering flight for the Tesla (TSLA.US) Roadster in Texas on October 15. However, Wall Street has historically reacted negatively to major Tesla (TSLA.US) product launches, creating a stark contrast between market sentiment and the hype of the demonstrations.

This demonstration will use compressed gas thrusters to lift the driverless vehicle. Musk has already warned employees that this feat "is very difficult to achieve and could also result in accidents." On Tuesday, Tesla (TSLA.US) shares closed at $375.23, 25% below its 52-week high. Historical data warns of risk: in 2019, Cybertruck's broken window incident led to a 6% drop in share price; in October 2024, after the unveiling of Cybercab, shares fell by 8.3%; and on September 4, a related event caused the stock to drop by 5.92%. The main pain point lies in the uncertainty around revenue conversion—despite Elon Musk saying that short sellers "almost pushed us to the brink," the company survives by resolving production issues, and investors are more eager for clear pricing and delivery timelines.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that even if all 1,000 units of the Founders Series, priced at $250,000 each, are sold, it will bring in only $250 million in revenue, which is negligible compared to its $1.48 trillion market capitalization.

Ledger co-founder Éric Larchevêque pointed out that Tesla (TSLA.US) still plans to start mass production in 2027 or 2028. The SpaceX (SPCX.US) case provides another warning: although Starship achieved successful orbital flight, share lock-up expiration after the IPO still led to a drop in stock price. October 16, Friday, being the first trading day after the announcement, will pose a severe test for Tesla (TSLA.US); if there is no operational prototype and reliable production schedule, relying only on spectacular demonstrations will only increase disappointment.

The lack of commercial details will cause investors to be disappointed again, and the earnings report to be released on October 21 will force attention back to the overall business. After multiple product launches, the market is once again scrutinizing Tesla's (TSLA.US) real ability to move from concept to delivery, and short-term volatility cannot hide the inevitable trend of a long-term return to fundamentals.