UK aluminum futures fell to a yearly low in October, with a strengthening US dollar and loose supply weighing on prices.

⑴ In October, aluminum futures in the UK market retreated to $2,980/ton, marking the lowest price so far this year. The previous upward trend driven by geopolitical conflicts has been almost completely digested, while a stronger US dollar and ample supply outside the Middle East jointly exert pressure on the market. ⑵ The pace of repair and restart of Middle Eastern aluminum smelting facilities has been faster than previously expected by the market, with the production suspensions caused by disruptions to the local natural gas industry chain continuing to improve; about a quarter of the capacity at Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi has resumed production. ⑶ Rio Tinto has reached a new agreement to ensure the continued operation of the Bell Bay aluminum smelter in Tasmania until the end of 2031, further improving the global aluminum market supply outlook. ⑷ Domestic manufacturing procurement demand remains weak, with the newly added RMB loans in September continuing to show a declining trend. The stimulus for the domestic manufacturing sector is limited, further dragging down downstream aluminum procurement quotations.