Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell targets $100k for Bitcoin by year end

Macro environment and bond volatility

Farrell noted that recent volatility in bond markets is influencing equities and contributing to uncertainty in the short term. Despite the murky near-term environment, he believes that the current macroeconomic regime continues to favor assets like Bitcoin, especially when considering global shifts in liquidity and financial repression.

He described the broader market as offering a “heads I win, tails you lose” scenario for Bitcoin, suggesting that both bullish and bearish macro drivers could ultimately push demand for the cryptocurrency.

MSCI decision and potential impacts

Farrell also commented on the decision by MSCI, a major provider of investment indexes, regarding the potential exclusion of publicly traded companies that hold significant amounts of Bitcoin in their treasuries, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR). He expects that MSCI will likely exclude these companies from certain indexes, although he predicted the impact on overall strategy and market sentiment would be limited.

The possible removal of firms like MicroStrategy has fueled some debate about whether such moves should be seen as a significant market catalyst or a non-event. Farrell suggested that current market pricing already reflects this potential downside, so any further exclusion may have muted effects unless new developments arise.

Mini dictionary: MSCI, or Morgan Stanley Capital International, is a leading provider of global investment indexes and analytics widely used by institutional investors for benchmarking and asset allocation.

Market responses and company actions

Addressing recent price movements, Farrell analyzed the selloff and subsequent reversal seen in stocks tied to Bitcoin treasuries, emphasizing that much of the negative sentiment appears already absorbed by the market. He reviewed the implications for STRC, a security linked to such strategies, and how its price might respond if further exclusions are confirmed.

He also observed MicroStrategy’s $1.5 billion STRC buyback initiative and discussed how proposals like daily dividend votes could affect shareholder value and overall returns for investors holding these assets.

Farrell estimated that, “While new all-time highs may not materialize in 2026, we view a price target of $95,000 to $100,000 for Bitcoin as achievable by year end, considering the current market environment and ongoing liquidity trends.”

Looking ahead, Farrell maintained a positive long-term stance, citing the potential for ongoing treasury buying, rising liquidity, and financial system dynamics to underpin sustained demand for Bitcoin into the end of the year.